June 30, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…AREA OF INTEREST W. CARIBBEAN SEA…ISSUED JUN. 12, 2022…8:10 EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Based on the recent NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, they have taken an interest near Nicaragua and Honduras, and have designated a LOW (20%) probability of development during the next 5 days, indicating an area of low pressure could develop by mid week
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening does indicate a broad area of rotation east of Nicaragua and Honduras.  However, the most distinct rotation is being displayed by a well defined tropical wave, located near 77.0W:
GOES 16 ATLANTIC WIDE AND CARIBBEAN CLOSE UP ANIMATIONS
28183895ATL.WIDE
28183895IR
28183895VIS
GOES 16 AFRICAN SATELLITE ANIMATION
AFRICASAT
Based on analysis of satellite loop imagery, and current mean layer steering, the area appears to either remain stationary, or drifting very slowly toward the west.  However, based on analysis of the forecast steering pattern, the area, or low pressure IF it develops, should take a motion more in lines of WNW to NW.  Depending on WHERE and IF low pressure does form, current forecast steering indicates it could wind up in the extreme southern BOC.  Based on analysis of the global models ECMWF, GFS and CMC, the ECMWF shows a very small, weak low moving into Nicaragua, with the GFS hell bent on taking a strong tropical storm to minimal hurricane into the southern BOC, then into Mexico.  CMC takes a weak low into northern Mexico.

Based on the MSLP anomaly maps from the models, each shows a low forming in different places and slightly different times next week:
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5445600
GFS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5337600
CMC
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5456400
Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, the area is currently under 25-30 kts of shear.  However, based on analysis this evening of the forecast shear pattern from the 3 global models, the pattern as far as shear is forecast to improve.  Although you will see some brown and reds in the pattern, the shear pattern is forecast to be somewhat radial, with the weakest shear values over the center of where each model indicates the low to be.  The black circled area indicates where the low is forecast to be centered in relation to the wind shear.  The radial pattern is not to be confused with a 200 mb radial outflow pattern, as this feature is found at the 200 mb level.  In regard to the shear pattern, wind shear is calculated through the layers of the atmosphere, and is determined by the 150 – 300 mb layer mean, minus the 700 – 925 mb layer mean.  So, two different critters.  Speaking of 200 mb radial outflow, it will be present, however centered well east of the supposed low pressure area.  It was noted however, a diffluent flow aloft will be over and north of the forecast low.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5445600
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5445600
gem-all-caribbean-shear_850v200-5467200
Analysis of moisture forecast maps regarding PWAT (Precipitable WATer) and RH (Relative Humidity), indicate favorable values for tropical development.
ECMWF AND GFS PWAT AND 500 MB RH FORECAST VALUES
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-5380800
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-5380800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-5380800
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-5380800
It is noted a decent amount of the SAL is forecast to be present, just north of the aforementioned tropical wave, and is forecast to diminish by the 15th-16th time frame.  Thought the GEOS dust extinction shows very heavy amounts of dust, an RGB true color image indicates lighter amounts.  Either way, we’ll have to see how the SAL plays into the mix.
CIMSS SAL TRUE COLOR SATELLITE IMAGE
g16nc-2

Based on my analysis of all these forecast parameters, I cannot totally rule out the possibility of development, however the forecast conditions appear to mimic what we encountered with ALEX.  So, if development does occur, it should be a slow process.  I will continue to monitor this situation over the next 48 – 72 hours for any significant changes in the pattern.

The following are the ECMWF EPS probabilities for tropical depression development:
ECMWF PROBABILITIES 48-96 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_96
72-120 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_120
96-144 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_144
168-216 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_216

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate tropical storm formation during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-13 00:10:41

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