October 22, 2020

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST BRIEF…ISSUED OCT. 15, 2020…8:20 P.M. EDT

5 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.

DONATIONS NEEDED AND APPRECIATED


Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 25
HURRICANES: 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3

U.S. LANDFALLS: 10
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Analysis of global models this evening still shows a large, non-tropical low to develop well east and south of Bermuda within the next 5 – 8 days, as well as and area of low pressure developing in the W. Caribbean Sea during the same forecast period.  This is noted in the NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.

NHC GTWO

CURRENT GOES 16 ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

The global models still differ on timing and intensity of the low in the W. Caribbean, with the ECMWF more interested in the non tropical feature, however showing development in the W. Caribbean a little later in the period.  The GFS is more bullish on the W. Caribbean feature, with the CMC right behind, but weaker.  The FV3 and FIM 8 experimental models also indicate the W. Caribbean low in about 7 days.
ECMWF

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)

GFS


CMC GEM


FV3

FIM8

Analysis of forecast wind shear and upper level wind maps, and forecast RH maps tend to indicate favorable, albeit not optimal conditions for gradual development in the W. Caribbean.  The ECMWF currently shows a less favorable upper level pattern in about 7 – 10 days, while the GFS and CMC indicate a well developed upper level anticyclone and favorable 200 mb wind flow, indicating development of an outflow pattern.  IF the ECMWF is correct, then the possibility of a weaker system which would have a tendency to move more westward is plausible.  IF the GFS and CMC are correct, then a stronger system which would most likely move northward to NNE is plausible.  At this time, any speculation as to strength and direction is a moot point, until development actually occurs.  Given the discrepancies in the modeling, what I am going to due over the next 2 – 3 days is, I will continue to monitor the situation until at such time, we actually see a developing low.  Once this occurs, I will begin updating regularly.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

eWeatherNews.Com | Newsphere by AF themes.