November 30, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 07, 2022…8:10 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Analysis this evening still showed a quite, Tropical Atlantic Basin.  Water vapor loop imagery indicated various areas of dry air, noted in the red and orange colors, as well as the “dark” tones as well.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
53715771
53715771wv
The drier air is a combination of the SAL, and the “suppressed” phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)  Based on analysis of the current JMA Ensemble CHI200 Anomalies, sinking air is prevalent up at the 200 mb level, indciate by the orange / red areas.  Again, as this air sinks, it compresses, and heats.  This has a drying effect throughout a large portion of the atmosphere, in this case, over the Atlantic basin.  When I state the air warms as it compresses, think of a bicycle tire pump.  After using the pump for a while, you’ll note the bottom, near where the hose connects, is warmer than the top.  This is due to the air being compressed at the bottom of the pump.  Same basic principle for the atmosphere.  When the air dries out, there is no moisture for cloud development or vertical instability.  Hence, the quiet period.  In the following graphics, you can pretty much see the extent of the SAL, with the drier air noted in “red” shading in some of the graphics.  In the RGB DUST graphic, the SAL is defined as the magenta color.
CIMSS SAL IMAGE
g16split
RGB DUST
msg_rgbdust
RGB AIRMASS
g16airmass
MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR
g16wvmid
CURRENT CHI200 ANOMALIES FROM THE JMA AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES
jma.1
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022070712_CONTROL_120
So, right now, we are in a period where the atmosphere is pretty stable over the Tropical Atlantic.  Current vertical instability is well below climatology at the moment.  The black line denotes climatology
ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_THDV
The JMA Ensemble model updated the CHI200 anomalies forecast today, which is where the previous graphic is from.  In my last update, you’ll remember I posted that we should begin to see an uptick in activity by around the 21st.  The update today has shifted slightly, and conditions should slowly begin to improve by next weekend, based on the week 2 forecast.  You’ll note in the first graphic, the light blue nudging off the coast of Africa, with the suppressed area more toward the EPAC.  This signal is slightly more favorable.  For week 3 and 4, this is where we should see a rather good increase, especially in tropical wave activity.  In the previous week 3 and 4 forecast, you’ll note the orange and blue pattern, which represents a PHASE 2 MJO.  The strength looks fairly moderate.  In today’s update, the JMA indicates a MUCH STRONGER PHASE 2 signal.  This is a fairly strong signal, and I don’t honestly remember the last time I saw the anomalies that strong.  This signal would allow or could allow for stronger waves than what we have witnessed so far.  And with the upward motion anomalies covering much of the Atlantic, and downward anomalies confined to the Pacific, we may enter into a busy period.  Again, with a phase 2 setup, the dynamics involved tend to slow the easterly trade winds, allowing for air and heat to pile up in the Atlantic basin, with the upward motion inducing vertical instability.  Again, this represents a strong PHASE 2 signal of the MJO.
JMA WEEK 2 CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
jma.2
JMA PREVIOUS WEEK 3 AND 4
jma.3
JMA CURRENT WEEK 3 AND 4 FORECAST ANOMALIES
jma.3.2
ECMWF EPS WEEK 2 CHI200 FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022070712_CONTROL_360
MJO PHASES
mjo. phases
MJO PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOWING FAVORED TC FORMATION AREAS (RED AND ORANGE)
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITART
I will continue monitoring the tropics for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-08 00:08:13

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