May 23, 2024

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TROPICAL TEASE? / DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED APR. 12, 2024…12:50 P.M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Ok.  As I was looking at some maps this morning on my Weatherbell account, and article from Joe Bastardi caught my eye.  Now, I’m not trying to “hype” this upcoming hurricane season, and those who have been following me over the past few years know, I DON’T HYPE!  With that said, I found the article interesting, and IF this does occur, we’ll find out if the “signals” were correct or not.  After reading the article, I decided to “investigate”a little more, diving into more of the computer models.  Right now, I would consider what I’m about to post to be a low (0 – 30%) probability of occurrence given this is very far out in the forecast period.  However the probability of the Atlantic Hurricane Season beginning a little earlier than June 01 (mid to late May) COULD exist, based on analysis of various atmospheric and oceanic items from the various modeling.  I will try to explain as best I can about each “factor”.  The following was the text from the article on Weatherbell this morning.  I have followed Mr. Bastardi for the past 20 years, and have “learned” a lot of my hurricane forecasting skills from him.  From what I’ve seen over the years, he is an accomplished tropical weather forecaster.  Ok, from the article:
Euro week 6 is suggesting we will have a may tropical cyclone. We have been showing the MJO heading into 8/1.  Surface pattern with high pressure in the western gulf and to the north, and the precip pattern.  Coming early, staying late IMO.

He did post graphics in between each statement, however I am going to try to expound on this as his graphics were from the 00Z run, yesterday.  The MJO forecast does tend to indicate the MJO to enter into anywhere from a phase 8 to phase 2 state (various models, various dates) within the aforementioned time frame.  These “phases” are favorable for tropical development over the Caribbean and Atlantic basins.  Green colors in the CHI200 forecast maps represent upward motion or upward vertical velocity in the upper atmosphere at 200 mb.  This allows for divergence aloft and convergence at the ocean’s surface.  Blue colors in the JMA MJO forecast chart equals the same, while yellow to red equals downward motion or sinking air, detrimental to development.
ECMWF EPS ANOMALIES
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-globe-chi200_anom_7day-6336000this
gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-globe-chi200_anom_7day-4089600
JMA MAY AVERAGE
MJO.MAY
You will note in the following graphic, that the forecasts do resemble a phase 1 or phase 2 pattern:
MJO PHASE PATTERNS
plot_chi_tvalue_8pan_maysep
The current forecast pattern, long range shows higher pressure anomalies over a decent portion of the GOMEX, and over the North Atlantic.  With this type of setup, pressures would be higher over those areas, and pressures to the south (i.e. Caribbean, Lesser Antilles) would naturally begin lowering, allowing warm air to rise.  Also with this particular setup, pressures would begin lowering over the MDR region as well.
ECMWF EPS
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-caribbean-mslp_anom_7day-6422400
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-exatl-mslp_anom_7day-6422400
GEFS
gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-exatl-mslp_anom_7day-5817600
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
cfs-daily-all-avg-exatl-mslp_anom_30day-6681600
The forecast precipitation pattern seems to indicate an “entity” in the Caribbean Sea regarding the time frame.
PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FORECASTS
ecmwf-weeklies-avg-caribbean-qpf_anom_7day-6681600
gfs-ensemble-extended-all-avg-caribbean-qpf_anom_7day-5731200
IF I’m correct, I know the Islands have been fairly dry so far, so, theses anomalies have to be produced by “something”.

Sea Surface Temperatures and anomalies do support development, as well as current Ocean Heat Content.
oisst_1d_tropatl_2024030100
oisst-all-caribbean-sst_anom-2707200
Wind shear forecast maps only go out to 10 – 14 days.  However, the CFSv2 model indicates shear should be below average / normal.
AtludifSea.2
We shall see, what we shall see!  Now onto severe weather.

The outlined maps you were used to seeing from my F5 DATA software, are no longer around and operational.  This means I have lost quite a bit of data to analyze but I will try to make the severe weather forecasts as accurate and understandable as possible.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/images/SPC_outlook_final_updated.png
I wasn’t going to update today, however there has been a change in the forecast, with an increase to the severe probability.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), has issued a 30% risk of severe thunderstorms in the day 4 outlook: FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS…

…SPC SUMMARY…
…Significant severe weather possible late afternoon Monday through Tuesday evening across the central states…

Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance continues an overall slower trend with the evolution of an amplifying shortwave trough expected to be over parts of the Southwest early Monday. As it crosses the southern Rockies into the central Great Plains by midday Tuesday, the tropospheric flow field will amplify Monday night through Tuesday morning. Substantial lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and this cyclone should track into the Mid-MO Valley vicinity by Tuesday afternoon before occluding over the Upper MS Valley late Tuesday. This overall slower trend results in expansion of severe probabilities west-southwestward on D5. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, does not appear to be overly rich. As such, the more westward initiation of convection during the late afternoon to early evening Monday may be within a more deeply mixed environment across parts of the dryline. Still, there is consensus that a plume of low to mid 60s surface dew points should be advected ahead of the dryline across much of western OK into western north TX. More widespread convective development will occur during the evening to overnight time frame, especially as the Pacific cold front overtakes the dryline and surges east from parts of KS southward. With this coinciding with the period of tropospheric flow amplification, it is plausible an extensive convective band is maintained east-northeast into early Tuesday. Whether this outpaces the relatively confined warm-moist sector and weakens, or is maintained through the end of D4 is unclear. This will have profound implications on the degree of daytime destabilization downstream over parts of the Corn Belt to the south-central states. With slower timing, and if convection can adequately weaken, a conditionally more favorable tornado threat may occur on Tuesday over the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Otherwise, should convection continue east-northeast, greater buoyancy may largely be confined south across the Ark-La-Tex into the Mid-South. As such, will defer to later outlooks for a potential 30 percent area on D5-Tuesday. Severe probabilities appear too low in D6-8 to warrant consideration of highlights as predictability wanes.

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK MAP (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)
day4prob
Unfortunately, the models I utilize for severe weather (NAM 3km and CIPS), do not go out far enough in the forecast period at the moment, so forecast indices will not be available on this post.  I intend to update on this event on Monday morning.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-04-12 16:44:59

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