Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).
The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season. The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy
We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names. The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda
STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 6
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 27
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4
U.S. LANDFALLS: 10
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening. IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life. This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.
Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates Tropical Depression 28 had become better organized earlier, continuing to organize as of this synopsis. Based on earlier reconnaissance aircraft data, T. D. 28 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Zeta at around 2:00 a.m. EDT. As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory, the following was available on ZETA:
5:00 PM EDT Sun Oct 25
Location: 17.7°N 83.4°W
Min pressure: 999 mb / 29.50 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
GOES 16 ZETA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLICK IMAGES)
ZETA is currently in an area where steering currents are very light, in fact almost collapsed at the moment, and the storm has been nearly stationary all day. By tomorrow, ridging is forecast to begin north of ZETA, and a general NW motion should occur. Based on my analysis of current forecast steering layers maps, the NW motion should continue into late Tuesday into very early Wednesday. Shortly thereafter, a shortwave trof is forecast to approach ZETA, which should cause a more northward to NNE turn to occur. This and an increase in forward speed, should bring ZETA ashore somewhere along the Gulf Coast anywhere between the eastern portion of LA. to the Gulf coast of AL. Right now it’s too early for me to pinpoint an exact landfall, until I can see how ZETA reacts once in the GOMEX. However, based on current forecast steering maps, and ATCF track guidance which is beginning to become more concise, I agree with the current NHC track forecast:
NHC FORECAST TRACK
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ZETA is currently located in a sweet area, where OHC is fairly high, wind shear is light, an upper level anticyclone is present, and excellent outflow has been established, as noted in the CIMSS OHC, WIND SHEAR and UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAPS
CIMSS OHC MAP
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
Based on analysis of the GFS and ECMWF global models, upper level winds are forecast to remain favorable for further gradual development for the next 48 – 72 hours. The models do project the upper level anticyclone to move in tandem with ZETA. The 200 mb streamline forecast maps indicate a decent outflow pattern to remain with ZETA pretty much during this time period. In the final graphic of the 200 mb streamline forecast from the ECMWF, the outflow is displaced well east of ZETA.
ECMWF 72 HOUR WIND SHEAR FORECAST
The following MSLP normalized anomalies map is posted, so you can match the surface feature to the wind shear map, in order to see that the upper level anticyclone is over the storm
ECMWF 72 HOUR MSLP ANOMALIES MAP
The following are the ECMWF 200 mb streamlines forecast through 72 hours.
ECMWF 200 MB FORECAST
Based on this, and updated intensity guidance modeling, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast. Based on my analysis, Zeta should continue to strengthen gradually to a stronger tropical storm before crossing into the Yucatan Peninsula. Upon clearing the Peninsula, given the favorable forecast for the upper level environment, and OHC values of 50 kj/cm2, ZETA should recover and become a minimal category 1 hurricane. Given the time frame for favorable conditions to be present, The NHC intensity forecast seems reasonable, however I cannot rule out ZETA becoming slightly stronger. Based on the intensity guidance update, I believe ZETA will attain 80 mph and possibly maintain 80 mph forecast a little longer than forecast, up to around 27 to 28 degrees north latitude. From there, once supposed wind shear sets in, and OHC drops off dramatically, ZETA should weaken to T. S. status prior to coming ashore. Again, the future intensity will depend on how ZETA survives the Yucatan Peninsula, and the exact timing of the onset of less favorable conditions. I believe though, the main factor in the beginning of the weakening period, is when ZETA encounters the extremely cooler OHC values, which should range between zero and 10 kj/cm2
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 25/2100Z 17.7N 83.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.7N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 19.7N 85.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH…INLAND
48H 27/1800Z 23.2N 89.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 25.7N 90.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 29.4N 90.3W 60 KT 70 MPH…INLAND
96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Once ZETA gets within close enough range to landfall, I will try to work out surge data and post it in one of my future updates.
I expect Tropical Storm Watches to be issued sometime on Tuesday for portions of the Gulf Coast states.
I will continue to monitor ZETA for any significant changes over the next 36 – 48 hours.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS