ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
NAMED STORMS: 17
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
Regarding my thoughts yesterday on a possible center reformation under the convection, this may have occurred. This was from the 5:00 a.m. discussion from the NHC:
Philippe’s low-level structure continues to be quite broad and diffuse this morning. This structure has made finding the center position quite a challenge. An earlier 0513 UTC GMI microwave pass confirmed this broad structure, though it did hint at a tighter mesoscale feature tucked under the convection to the southeast of the broader low-level rotation seen on 1-minute GOES-16 imagery. The initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory, in agreement with the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate, in addition to an earlier received saildrone observation that had sustained tropical-storm-force winds well to the southeast of the broad circulation center.
This mornings ASCAT pass picked up on this as well:
CURRENT AMSU IMAGERY
As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE:
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 5
Location: 25.6°N 66.3°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb/ 29.68 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Based on analysis of forecast wind shear items, upper level pattern, and forecast moisture, wind shear is forecast to abate for the next 12 – 18 hours. Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase based on my analysis earlier this morning. This may be enough to allow for some strengthening IF a LLC can be maintained. In fact, the current intensity has gone up from 45 mph to 50 mph. Based on my analysis of forecast MSLP anomalies, and 500 mb anomalies, in approximately 36 hours, PHILIPPE should merge with the current mid level low / trough located off the SEUS as the feature moves toward PHILIPPE, absorbing the storm. As this this occurs, baroclinicity will take over based on analysis of forecast shear, and the PWAT and mid level moisture pattern becoming more baroclininc resembling an extratropical low pressure system. Any future intensification will be due to this process. Based on this mix, I agree with the current NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 05/1500Z 25.6N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 27.7N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 30.9N 66.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 37.6N 66.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 41.8N 66.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 47.4N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
PHILIPPE was moving slowly to the N as of this update. Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track, which has shifted somewhat left, and given the uncertainty of which center will be dominate, it is noted in the NHC discussion that adjustments to track could occur. With this updated track, residents along the New England and NE coastal areas will experience significant wave heights
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST
The following graphics are from the NHC:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda
Please refer the the following NHC Public Advisory for full information regarding this watch and warning:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
NHC GRAPHICS PAGE LINK
Still monitoring the GOMEX. Analysis reveals that a portion of the Central American Gyre may break off from the EPAC very close to the central American coast, and head into the BOC (Bay of Campeche). From there, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a system trying to organize and move approx. WNW through the Gulf. Right now, the models are split on intensity and size. At about day 6 in the forecast period, both models show a brief reduction in wind shear to a marginally favorable condition, with a radial pattern developing over the system while it’s over the BOC. At around day 7, wind shear is forecast to become stronger, so at the moment unless forecast conditions change, this would have about a 24 hour window for organizing and slow strengthening. Upper level winds are forecast to remain zonal through the period. Based on the large area shown in the modeling, and what appears to be this area being absorbed by an approaching front, I feel this may be subtropical at best, should organization occur. The ECMWF EPS probability now indicates a 60% probability of a Tropical Depression. This cannot be ruled out right now given the MJO is supposed to go into phase 8, and 200 mb CHI anomalies indicating a very divergent pattern over the area during the forecast period. I’m going to continue to monitor this, in case forecast conditions become more favorable down the road.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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