TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 5, 2023…12:15 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is still a sheared system.In fact, in my opinion, it doesn’t even resemble anything tropical.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN


Regarding my thoughts yesterday on a possible center reformation under the convection, this may have occurred.  This was from the 5:00 a.m. discussion from the NHC:
Philippe’s low-level structure continues to be quite broad and diffuse this morning. This structure has made finding the center position quite a challenge. An earlier 0513 UTC GMI microwave pass confirmed this broad structure, though it did hint at a tighter mesoscale feature tucked under the convection to the southeast of the broader low-level rotation seen on 1-minute GOES-16 imagery. The initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory, in agreement with the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate, in addition to an earlier received saildrone observation that had sustained tropical-storm-force winds well to the southeast of the broad circulation center.
This mornings ASCAT pass picked up on this as well:

CURRENT AMSU IMAGERY

As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE:
11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 5
Location: 25.6°N 66.3°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb/ 29.68 in
Max sustained: 50 mph
Based on analysis of forecast wind shear items, upper level pattern, and forecast moisture, wind shear is forecast to abate for the next 12 – 18 hours.  Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase based on my analysis earlier this morning. This may be enough to allow for some strengthening IF a LLC can be maintained. In fact, the current intensity has gone up from 45 mph to 50 mph.  Based on my analysis of forecast MSLP anomalies, and 500 mb anomalies, in approximately 36 hours,  PHILIPPE should merge with the current mid level low / trough located off the SEUS as the feature moves toward PHILIPPE, absorbing the storm.  As this this occurs, baroclinicity will take over based on analysis of forecast shear, and the PWAT and mid level moisture pattern becoming more baroclininc resembling an extratropical low pressure system. Any future intensification will be due to this process.  Based on this mix, I agree with the current NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  05/1500Z 25.6N  66.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 27.7N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 30.9N  66.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 34.2N  66.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 37.6N  66.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 41.8N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  08/1200Z 47.4N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

PHILIPPE was moving slowly to the N as of this update.  Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track, which has shifted somewhat left, and given the uncertainty of which center will be dominate, it is noted in the NHC discussion that adjustments to track could occur.  With this updated track, residents along the New England and NE coastal areas will experience significant wave heights

12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

NHC FORECAST TRACK

WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST

The following graphics are from the NHC:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda