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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 04, 2023…3:45 P.M. EDT

7 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is still a sheared system.  Visible satellite loop imagery shows the exposed LLC just NW of the convection, and very disorganized.  In fact, I don’t know why the NHC just doesn’t downgrade this.  There is some discrepancy in data though, as the MTCSWA product indicates a closed circulation, the 06Z NHC TAFB surface analysis indicates more of an open wave.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
PHILIPPE.IR

PHILIPPE.VIS
MULTIPLATFORM TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND ANALYSIS

NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_06Z
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
canvas

CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
PHILIPPE.shear
PHILIPPE.UPPER
I also noted in analysis this morning, in regard to the LLC, based on lower convergence and upper divergence maps, a center reformation should be taking place, and why this hasn’t occurred is beyond me.
CIMSS LOWER CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
wg8conv
wg8dvg
As of the 2:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE:
2:00 PM AST Wed Oct 4

Location: 22.0°N 65.8°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
Based on analysis of forecast wind shear items, upper level pattern, and forecast moisture, wind shear is forecast to abate for a 24 -36 hour period beginning later this evening, before increasing again. This may be enough to allow for some strengthening IF a LLC can be maintained.  Soon thereafter, the system should merge with the current mid level low located off the SEUS as the feature moves toward PHILIPPE, along with the forecast of an approaching trough .  Once this occurs, baroclinicity will take over, and any intensification will be due to this and PHILIPPE should become extra-tropical.  Based on this mix, I agree with the current NHC intensity forecast:
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  04/1500Z 21.2N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 22.3N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 24.7N  66.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 27.6N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 30.8N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 34.2N  65.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 37.8N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 46.8N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 52.9N  71.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

PHILIPPE was moving slowly to the NNW.  Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track, which has shifted somewhat left, and I prefer the ECMWF EPS and TVCE consensus solutions, showing PHILIPPE forecast to enter the Gulf of Maine.  With this updated track, residents along the New England and NE coastal areas will experience significant wave heights
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF EPS
NHC FORECAST TRACK
cone graphic
WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST
ww3-east-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1696399200-1696399200-1696831200-20

The following graphics are from the NHC:
[Key Messages]
[Spanish Key Messages]

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

Watches and Warnings have been discontinued for the Caribbean Islands

Please refer the the following NHC Public Advisory for full information regarding this watch and warning:

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/041745.shtml?
NHC GRAPHICS PAGE LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/174541.shtml?3-daynl

Elsewhere, the current 500 mb anomaly forecast indicates the lowering of 500 mb pressure anomalies has occurred, and now appears as a mid level low on water vapor imagery.  Models currently do not indicate this working down to the surface, and this feature is forecast to merge with PHILIPPE in a few days.
ECMWF 500 MB ANOMALY ANIMATION
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1696399200-1696399200-1696593600-40
SEUS WATER VAPOR LOOP
SEUS.WV
We may also have to keep an eye on the GOMEX, as the Central American Gyre becomes active.   The ECMWF EPS probability now indicates a 45% probability of a Tropical Depression Both ECMWF and GFS models show a lowering of pressure around that time.  This cannot be ruled out right now given the MJO is supposed to go into phase 8, with a few models indicate going into phase 1.  200 mb CHI anomalies indicate a very divergent pattern over the area during the forecast period.  Analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS wind shear forecast and 200 mb pattern indicate conditions will be marginally favorable for some possible slow development.  I’m going to continue to monitor this, in case forecast conditions become more favorable down the road.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_216
TROPICAL STORM
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_gulf_264

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1696377600-1697068800-1697241600-40
gfs-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1696399200-1697112000-1697263200-40
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-10-04 19:44:43

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