TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 03, 2023…12:10 P.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is still a sheared system this morning, with visible satellite loop imagery showing the exposed just on the NW edge of the heavy convection.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS

CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)

PHILIPPE is still undergoing some moderate NWLY wind shear of around 25 kts, and the upper level outflow at the moment is limited.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN


As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE:
11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 3
Location: 18.9°N 63.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
Based on analysis of water vapor imagery and visible satellite loop imagery, PHILIPPE is taking in some slightly drier air, along with the shear.  However based on my analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models this morning, in about 48 hours, conditions are forecast to briefly become favorable for some intensification based on mid level moisture, precipitable water, and development of a radial shear pattern centered almost directly over the storm.  There has been a change in the forecast of the 200 mb pattern, with the center of an outflow pattern forecast to be near Puerto Rico.  However, PHILIPPE will be in an area of favorable jet interaction, and will be located within the left rear entrance region of the jetstreak which creates divergence.  Based on analysis of the 72 hour CHI200 anomalies forecast, PHILIPPE will be under a divergent upper level pattern.





Given the OHC values in the projected path, should the other forecast conditions materialize, I do believe PHILIPPE should have a brief period of intensification, however this is going to be based on whether or not he survives the next 24 – 36 hours.  Reports from the current NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the LLC has lost its definition.  However, based on the premise of more favorable conditions in a couple days, I’m going to give Philippe the benefit of the doubt of intensifying.  I basically agree with the NHC intensity forecast, however by the 96 hour time frame, intensification could be more from baroclinic effects, as he could begin acquiring frontal characteristics by that time.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  03/1500Z 18.9N  63.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 19.8N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 21.2N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 22.9N  65.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 24.8N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 27.3N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 30.1N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 35.5N  63.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 41.7N  63.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

PHILIPPE was moving toward an uncertain NW.  Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track, which has shifted somewhat left, and I prefer the ECMWF EPS and TVCA consensus solutions, showing PHILIPPE taking aim at Nova Scotia.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF EPS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* British Virgin Islands