ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3 – 4
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
NAMED STORMS: 17
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.
The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:
Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands. Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them. Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.
Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is still a sheared system this morning, with visible satellite loop imagery showing the exposed just on the NW edge of the heavy convection.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
PHILIPPE is still undergoing some moderate NWLY wind shear of around 25 kts, and the upper level outflow at the moment is limited.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, The following information was available on PHILIPPE:
11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 3
Location: 18.9°N 63.9°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb / 29.65 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
Based on analysis of water vapor imagery and visible satellite loop imagery, PHILIPPE is taking in some slightly drier air, along with the shear. However based on my analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models this morning, in about 48 hours, conditions are forecast to briefly become favorable for some intensification based on mid level moisture, precipitable water, and development of a radial shear pattern centered almost directly over the storm. There has been a change in the forecast of the 200 mb pattern, with the center of an outflow pattern forecast to be near Puerto Rico. However, PHILIPPE will be in an area of favorable jet interaction, and will be located within the left rear entrance region of the jetstreak which creates divergence. Based on analysis of the 72 hour CHI200 anomalies forecast, PHILIPPE will be under a divergent upper level pattern.
Given the OHC values in the projected path, should the other forecast conditions materialize, I do believe PHILIPPE should have a brief period of intensification, however this is going to be based on whether or not he survives the next 24 – 36 hours. Reports from the current NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the LLC has lost its definition. However, based on the premise of more favorable conditions in a couple days, I’m going to give Philippe the benefit of the doubt of intensifying. I basically agree with the NHC intensity forecast, however by the 96 hour time frame, intensification could be more from baroclinic effects, as he could begin acquiring frontal characteristics by that time.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 03/1500Z 18.9N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 19.8N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 21.2N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 22.9N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 24.8N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0000Z 27.3N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 30.1N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 35.5N 63.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 41.7N 63.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
PHILIPPE was moving toward an uncertain NW. Based on my analysis of forecast maps showing ridge and trough orientations, forecast steering, and guidance, I agree with the current NHC forecast track, which has shifted somewhat left, and I prefer the ECMWF EPS and TVCA consensus solutions, showing PHILIPPE taking aim at Nova Scotia.
12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
The following graphics are from the NHC:
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * British Virgin Islands
Please refer the the following NHC Public Advisory for full information regarding this watch and warning:
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
NHC GRAPHICS PAGE LINK
Elsewhere, the current 500 mb anomaly forecast still indicates the “ridge over troubled water” pattern, still indicating lowering pressures in the area north of the Bahamas. I will be monitoring the area over the next 3 days. We may also have to keep an eye on the GOMEX, as the Central American Gyre becomes active (product of the EPAC Monsoon). While the system shown with the 850 mb vorticity right against central America, the ECMWF EPS probability now indicates a 45% probability of a Tropical Depression (up from 20-25% from yesterday). Both ECMWF and GFS models show a lowering of pressure around that time. This cannot be ruled out right now given the MJO is supposed to go into phase 8, with a few models indicate going into phase 1. 200 mb CHI anomalies indicate a very divergent pattern over the area during the forecast period.
GFS 850 MB FORECAST INDICATING CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
00Z 03 OCT. – 00Z 08 OCT.
00Z 08 OCT. – 00Z 13 OCT.
ECMWF EPS FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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