June 13, 2024

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE / TROPICAL STORM RINA / POSSIBLE SEUS DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 29, 2023…12:20 P.M. EDT

8 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS:
NAMED STORMS:          17
HURRICANES:                 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:  3

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone! 
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.  Unless we have a system threatening any area, the forecast office will be closed on the weekends.

Tropical Storms PHILIPPE and RINA still remain in close proximity of each other, only being separated from each other by approximately 500 nautical miles (575 statute miles).

Analysis of visible satellite loop imagery of PHILIPPE indicates the LLC to be somewhat exposed to the west and still somewhat elongated.  However in the last few frames of the loop, it appears it may be trying to move under the deep convection.  Based on this, and my analysis of current lower convergence, upper divergence, and vorticity maps from CIMSS, I still feel a center relocation could occur, as the values of the parameters I just mentioned are strongest over the area of deep convection to the SE of the LLC, rather than over the “center”.
PHILIPPE IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
PHILIPPE.IR
PHILIPPE.VISThe storm is still experiencing some moderate shear over the LLC, however it appears that the center of the radial pattern has edged closer to the storm.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND PATTERN
PHILIPPE.shear
PHILIPPE.UPPER
Dry air and moderate shear are forecast to remain with the system up to right about 72 hours, although as Rina becomes further in distance from PHILIPPE, conditions are forecast to improve with the SHIPS diagnostics indicate wind shear to abate, and based on my analysis of the global models, the radial shear pattern supposedly becomes centered of PHILIPPE, along with a favorable increase in PWAT, improved 200 mb pattern, and mid level moisture, albeit there is forecast to be drier air just west of the system.  Based on analysis of the CHI200 forecast, PHILIPPE will also be coming under a more divergent pattern.  Based on the information analyzed this morning, PHILIPPE could increase in intensity, with all but 3 of the intensity guidance models indicating a category 1 hurricane in about 4 days.  Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC intensity forecast until I see some consistency in intensity guidance.
NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INIT
29/1500Z 18.3N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 30/0000Z 18.1N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 17.8N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 17.4N 56.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 17.3N 56.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 17.5N 56.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 18.4N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 21.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 26.1N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
ECMWF FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR PHILIPPE
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-pwat_mm-6291200
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh500-6291200
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-6291200
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-z200_speed-6291200
CURRENT AND FORECAST CHI200 ANOMALIES (SECOND GRAPHIC INDICATES 200 MB UPWARD MOTION, OR DIVERGENT PATTERN)
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-5999600
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-6291200
As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on PHILIPPE:
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 29
Location: 18.3°N 55.3°W
Moving: WSW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
The center of PHILIPPE was moving slowly to the WSW.  Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering and analysis of ridge and trough forecasts from MSLP animations, both systems are in a weak steering current regime.  This is due to the current steering pattern, and the interaction between PHILIPPE and RINA.  Based on analysis of the forecast, PHILIPPE should continue drifting during the next 72 hours.  Once RINA departs, PHILIPPE should once again feel more of the forecast steering pattern, and should eventually begin moving toward the NNW to N.  While guidance is still spread, there is a little more confidence in the track forecast.  Based on this, I currently agree with the NHC forecast track, and prefer the consensus model guidance TVCA, to which the NHC official track is with.
12 TRACK GUIDANCE
aal17_2023092912_track_early
NHC FORECAST TRACK
cone graphic
Tropical Storm RINA is under the same pattern as PHILIPPE, however she is experiencing 30 kts of shear, which has allowed her center to become well exposed.  Hours earlier, the LLC had been underneath the deep convection, with the center becoming exposed in about a 4 hour time frame.
RINA IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
91L.IR
91L.vis
As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on RINA:
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 29
Location: 19.4°N 47.0°W
Moving: NNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb / 29.62 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
Based on my analysis of forecast conditions, along with the latest SHIPS diagnostics, wind shear forecast maps call for shear to remain over RINA with SHIPS indicating fluctuations during the next 84 hours, however ranging between 35 – 36 kts.  This should keep the center exposed, and should allow for gradual weakening of the storm, which is shown in current intensity guidance modeling.  Based on this, I agree with the NHC intensity forecast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 29/1500Z 19.4N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

12H 30/0000Z 19.8N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 20.4N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 21.5N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 22.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 24.0N 53.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 25.6N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1200Z…DISSIPATED
Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate RINA to weaken and dissipate.  I am only posting the ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-mslp_norm_anom-1695945600-1695945600-1696291200-40
RINA is also moving slowly, and to the NNW, due to all the conditions mentioned on PHILIPPE.  However, as RINA moves away from PHILIPPE, the effects of the forecast steering pattern should begin to take her from NNW to north by late Sun., early Mon.  Based on this, I agree with the current track guidance consensus models TVCA/TVCE and NHC forecast track
12Z GUIDANCE
aal18_2023092912_track_early
NHC FORECAST TRACK
cone graphicElsewhere, the current 500 mb anomaly forecast indicates yet again, the “ridge over troubled water” pattern, indicating there could be another development in the area north of the Bahamas, and I will be monitoring the area over the next days.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6464000
gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6485600
The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-09-29 16:07:49

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