December 5, 2022

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TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 31, 2022…8:10 P.M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:       5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone ) FIFTEEN has been upgraded to Tropical Storm LISA by the NHC.  As of the 8:00 p.m. EDT intermediate advisory, the following was available on LISA:
8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 31
Location:15.5°N 78.9°W
Moving:W at 14 mph
Min pressure:1002 mb / 29.59 in
Max sustained:45 mph

Satellite loop imagery indicates LISA is becoming better organized, with the heavy convection just SE of the center.  Mid level dry air is just to the west of Lisa at the moment.
WEATHERNERDS IR, VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
40658473ir
40658473
40658473wv
Analysis this evening of the wind shear and upper level winds from CIMSS indicates wind shear has reduced, with a radial shear pattern now over LISA.  The upper level wind pattern continues to slowly improve, and though not optimal at this time, based on the motion of upper level clouds, upper level outflow seems to be gradually becoming established.  Analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS global models indicates the wind shear pattern becomes more favorable by tomorrow (12Z Tues.), along with an improving 200 mb streamline pattern, indicating outflow aloft.  While the outflow channel will not e exactly centered over the storm, LISA will be entering the right, rear entrance region of a 200 mb jetstreak, which will aid in evacuation of air in the upper.  The models also indicate an improving moisture pattern at 500 mb, which continues to improve up until landfall.  Based on this, and OHC values of 100 – 125 j/kg,  LISA should continue to gradually strengthen.  Based on these forecast factors, along with the most recent SHIPS wind shear forecast, wind shear is forecast to be below 10 kts for the next 24 hours, and below 15 kts up to landfall.  Given this, I cannot rule out Lisa attaining CAT 1 hurricane status just right before landfall, albeit the current SHIPS diagnostics does not indicate this.  For now, I have to agree wit the NHC intensity forecast, based on the analyzed forecast parameters.  I intend to  look at this again tomorrow evening to try and get a better handle on intensity at landfall.  The following graphics are from the ECMWF in regards to the forecast conditions mentioned.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR / 200 MB PATTERN AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-7304000

ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-7304000
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-7304000
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 31/2100Z 15.5N 78.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.7N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.2N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 16.7N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 17.0N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 16.9N 89.3W 45 KT 50 MPH…INLAND
72H 03/1800Z 16.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
96H 04/1800Z 17.5N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z…DISSIPATED

LISA is currently moving toward the west.  Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, Lisa should pretty much continue on this track up until landfall.  Based on the current steering layer map from CIMSS, along with forecast steering maps, I expect LISA to make a slight bend northward during the next 36 hours, however remaining on an overall westward motion until landfall.  18Z track guidance is tightly clustered, and indicate this motion which I just mentioned.
NHC TRACK AND WATCH / WARNING MAP (LINKED)
cone graphic
18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
AL15_current
Please click on the following link for NHC graphics and click each graphic:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/234839.shtml?3-daynl

The following link is for the current public advisory, and will provide you with current watches and warnings, and hazards affecting land:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/312348.shtml?

The following link takes a little to load, however it’s an interactive radar map, but you can zoom in and click on the radar you wish to view:

RADAR PUBLIC ACCESSIBLE DATABASE
http://tropicalglobe.com/radar_database/

I will continue to monitor LISA for ANY significant changes, and will try to update tomorrow evening.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-11-01 00:01:06

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