December 5, 2022

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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 12, 2022…8:25 P.M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening reveals Karl’s structure this evening has diminished in coverage, however the center and heavy convection seem to have lined up better.  You’ll notice the upper level clouds north of Karl blowing off toward the west.  This is due to wind shear from the west on the order of about 25 kts.  Based from analysis last night, this shear has onset earlier than what was projected in modeling.  Satellite loop imagery is from Weathernerds.
KARL IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
77324020
77324020VIS
Maximum sustained winds were reported at 60 mph.  As of the latest advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Karl:
7:00 PM CDT Wed Oct 12
Location: 22.4°N 94.2°W
Moving:
NNE at 3 mph
Min pressure:1000 mb / 29.53 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
NHC TRACK AND WATCH / WARNING MAP (LINKED TO NHC)
cone graphic
The motion of Karl was set at north-northeast, at 3 mph, or basically a northward drift.  Current steering layer mean indicates Karl is embedded in a very weak steering regime, and the slow northward motion is most likely the storm feeling the weakness to its north, by a deep trof.  The slow motion is most likely an indication that the poleward motion is getting ready to change.  Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, the forecast shows the ridge the NHC has mentioned in their discussion, which will be moving and building over northern Mexico.  As this occurs, Karl should begin to move back toward the SSE, then eventually south, and then into the Mexican coast.  Based on this, and the very tightly clustered track guidance models, I agree with the NHC forecast track at this time.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
AL14_current
As stated, Karl is under westerly shear at the moment, however there is some semblance of an upper level outflow channel around the entire eastern periphery of the storm.
CIMSS 20Z WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAPS
KARL.SHEAR
KARL.UPPER
As of my analysis this evening, shear is going to be tricky to forecast, as it seems the global models have not been handling the shear forecast as well as they usually do.  You’ll note in the CIMSS shear map, the radial shear pattern is centered over Mexico, while both the ECMWF and GFS have it centered over Karl.  Based on this, I have no choice but to reference the SHIPS diagnostic report which indicates shear is supposed to increase.  However, the SHIPS forecast is about 5 – 10 kts below the current shear pattern.  In addition, water vapor loop imagery indicates drier mid level air may already trying to intrude into Karl.  I can’t rule this out, as some arc clouds were noted in visible imagery, indicating the beginning of slight, dry air intrusion  The NHC indicated that some slight, very short term strengthening could occur as Karl is over very warm water, which in my opinion COULD occur, seeing that the core of the storm is small and very tight, and the semi outflow pattern is present, however if conditions continue to deteriorate, Karl could begin to weaken a little sooner than forecast.  So for the moment, given the somewhat uncertain nature of the shear pattern forecast, I have to agree with the NHC intensity forecast from the 4:00 p.m. CDT discussion.
ECMWF AND GFS 21Z SHEAR FORECAST (COMPARE TO THE SHEAR MAP ABOVE)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-5608400
gfs-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-5608400
WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
77324020WV
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 12/2100Z 22.2N 94.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

12H 13/0600Z 22.2N 94.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 20.5N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.5N 93.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 18.7N 94.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.5N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z…DISSIPATED
NHC STORM DATA
205549_key_messages_sm
205549_spanish_key_messages_sm
205549
205549.50kt

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tuxpan to Frontera
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings may be
required for portions of the coast of Mexico later tonight or on
Thursday.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Karl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/MIATCDAT4.shtml
RAINFALL:  Karl is expected to produce 3 to 7 inches of rain, with
local maxima up to 12 inches, across portions of Veracruz and
Tabasco states in Mexico through Friday night. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches, are also expected
across portions of Chiapas. Flash flooding with mudslides in higher
terrain is possible.
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Mexican
coastline in the watch area starting Friday.
SURF:  Swells generated by Karl are expected to affect the Mexican
coastline for the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

The following link takes a little to load, however it’s an interactive radar map, but you can zoom in and click on the radar you wish to view:

RADAR PUBLIC ACCESSIBLE DATABASE
http://tropicalglobe.com/radar_database/

I will continue to monitor KARL for ANY significant changes in the forecast parameters and track guidance

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-10-13 00:16:28

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