May 18, 2021

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TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…IOTA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE…ISSUED NOV. 14, 2020…6:55 P.M. EST

5 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Storm IOTA has become much better organized in the past few hours.  Deep convection has reformed closer to the LLC.  Current satellite loop imagery indicates a rapid increase of convection over the center, and a CDO appears to be developing.  Based on the cloud motion in the vertical, this could be the beginning of the rapid intensification phase.
GOES 16 IR SATELLITE LOOPS (CLICK IMAGES)


The following was available from the NHC as of the 7:00 p.m. EST update
7:00 PM EST Sat Nov 14
Location: 12.6°N 76.9°W
Moving: WSW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb / 29.38 in
Max sustained: 60 mph

Based on analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS, IOTA still remains in a low shear environment.  The current upper level winds map indicates a much improved upper level outflow pattern
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS


Based on analysis this evening of the forecast wind shear maps from the ECMWF and 200 mb streamline forecast, IOTA is forecast to remain in a low shear environment.  Current SHIPS diagnostic verifies this at the moment.  The 200 mb forecast indicates once again, upper level outflow is forecast to become pretty much perfect, showing an almost textbook, large area of outflow:
ECMWF 200 MB WINDS FORECAST 24 AND 48 HOURS


SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC REPORT LINK
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al312020/stext/20111418AL3120_ships.txt

Based on the analysis of these forecast parameters, and warm SST’s in the path of the storm, IOTA should begin R. I.  once the inner core becomes tighter.  Given the excellent forecast parameters mentioned, including more than ample moisture forecast from 850 – 500 mb until landfall, I tend to agree with the NHC intensity forecast, which is pretty much inline with current intensity guidance, however even though I may be wrong, I am not willing yet to rule out IOTA becoming a category 4 hurricane.  We’ve seen 2 storms this year go through R.I. and reach above the forecast intensity, with less favorable conditions, especially in the upper atmosphere.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM RAL
INIT 14/2100Z 12.6N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 12.7N 77.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 13.0N 78.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 13.4N 80.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 13.8N 82.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 14.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH…INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 14.0N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 13.6N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 19/1800Z…DISSIPATED
https://i2.wp.com/hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al312020/intensity_early/aal31_2020111418_intensity_early.png
IOTA was moving to the WSW being caused by the current ridge setup.  As this ridge progresses eastward, a W to WNW motion should occur, followed by a WSW track thereafter.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER

Based on my analysis of the 12Z forecast steering maps, I don’t see anything in the near future to indicate a change in forecast track, and I agree with the NHC forecast which pretty much mimics the dynamic and consensus guidance
NHC FORECAST TRACK

ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE




PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/142331.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/233129.shtml?3-daynl

Prayers to those in the path of this storm!  Godspeed!!

I will continue to monitor IOTA for any significant changes.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



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