Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good day everyone!
Sorry I haven’t updated over the past few days. I’ve had to work late for the past few evenings, as one of our team members called out due to his wife being in the hospital
IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.
STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES: 2
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
U. S. LANDFALLS: 1
2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
The season is still ridiculously slow, with FIONA being our sixth storm of the season. As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm FIONA. I will have various informational graphics toward the end of my synopsis:
8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 17
Location: 16.1°N 63.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
FIONA is currently moving toward the west at 13 mph, based on satellite loop imagery, HH aircraft, and current steering layer mean.
NHC FORECAST TRACK / WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAP (LINKED TO INTERACTIVE MAP)
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN (ARROW POINTS TO WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE)
Based on my analysis of both the current and forecast steering layers maps, the weakness pointed out in the above graphic is forecast to become more pronounced over the next 48 – 72 hours, thus the forecast track of more toward the WNW then NW, and eventually a recurve of the storm.
12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
This is always subject to change based on any change in the pattern, and intensity of the system. However at the moment, forecast track guidance is pretty clustered, and has been for the past 2 runs. Based on this, and throwing the most recent ECMWF forecast, I concur with the NHC forecast track which follows the TVCA / TVCE consensus models, however I feel a track slightly left of this could occur.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY ANIMATION
After having her convection displaced well east of the center, recent satellite loop imagery tends to indicate FIONA may be starting to become better organized, as there has been a decrease in wind shear, based on the recent map from CIMSS. Water Vapor loop imagery indicates ample moisture, with dry air remaining away from the center, and around the periphery of the storm. The PWAT and RH forecast from the ECMWF indicates a favorable increase in surface moisture, and relative humidity up through the 500 mb level in about 24 – 48 hours.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGES
Along with the favorable moisture forecast, the current radial shear pattern which is slightly displaced, is forecast to become a little more favorable, along with an improving upper level radial outflow pattern over the system. Based on this, FIONA should begin to slowly strengthen today, with a more gradual strengthening regime should the forecast conditions pan out. As of the 5:00 a.m. forecast discussion from the NHC, I agree with that intensity forecast, however I am not ruling out the possibility of FIONA becoming a CAT 2 hurricane in approximately 72 – 96 hours, to which the majority of the intensity guidance suggests.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AND PWAT FROM CIMSS
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 17/0900Z 16.4N 63.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.1N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.7N 67.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 18.6N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 19/1800Z 19.7N 69.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 20/0600Z 20.8N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 23.0N 71.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 26.0N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
GFS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST
SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC SHEAR FORECAST
A HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic:
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo and for the northern coast from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin * Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on Puerto Rico late tonight or on Sunday, and within the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic late Sunday through Monday. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands within the warning area through this morning. Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands later this morning, spread westward across Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon. RAINFALL: Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall: Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4 inches. British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local 10 inches possible. Puerto Rico: 5 to 10 inches with local 16 inches possible, particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico. Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with 12 inches possible, particularly on the far eastern coast. Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Turks and Caicos: 4 to 10 inches. These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in southern and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the Dominican Republic. SURF: Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Swells will spread westward to the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
The following are graphics and links are from the NHC:
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK THE BARK BLUE HEADINGS)
The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
I will continue to monitor FIONA and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes to the forecast
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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