October 2, 2022

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TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 17, 2022…10:10 A.M. EDT

8 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

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For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good day everyone!

Sorry I haven’t updated over the past few days.  I’ve had to work late for the past few evenings, as one of our team members called out due to his wife being in the hospital

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 6
TOTAL HURRICANES:       2
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 1

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The season is still ridiculously slow, with FIONA being our sixth storm of the season.  As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT intermediate advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm FIONA.  I will have various informational graphics toward the end of my synopsis:
8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 17
Location: 16.1°N 63.4°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb / 29.53 in
Max sustained: 60 mph

FIONA is currently moving toward the west at 13 mph, based on satellite loop imagery, HH aircraft, and current steering layer mean.
NHC FORECAST TRACK / WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAP (LINKED TO INTERACTIVE MAP)
115608_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN (ARROW POINTS TO WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE)
wg8dlm2
Based on my analysis of both the current and forecast steering layers maps, the weakness pointed out in the above graphic is forecast to become more pronounced over the next 48 – 72 hours, thus the forecast track of more toward the WNW then NW, and eventually a recurve of the storm.
f72
12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal07_2022091712_track_early

This is always subject to change based on any change in the pattern, and intensity of the system.  However at the moment, forecast track guidance is pretty clustered, and has been for the past 2 runs.  Based on this, and throwing the most recent ECMWF forecast, I concur with the NHC forecast track which follows the TVCA / TVCE consensus models, however I feel a track slightly left of this could occur.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY ANIMATION
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1663372800-1663372800-1663804800-40
After having her convection displaced well east of the center, recent satellite loop imagery tends to indicate FIONA may be starting to become better organized, as there has been a decrease in wind shear, based on the recent map from CIMSS.  Water Vapor loop imagery indicates ample moisture, with dry air remaining away from the center, and around the periphery of the storm.  The PWAT and RH forecast from the ECMWF indicates a favorable increase in surface moisture, and relative humidity up through the 500 mb level in about 24 – 48 hours.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGES
43455858IR
43455858WVAlong with the favorable moisture forecast, the current radial shear pattern which is slightly displaced, is forecast to become a little more favorable, along with an improving upper level radial outflow pattern over the system.  Based on this, FIONA should begin to slowly strengthen today, with a more gradual strengthening regime should the forecast conditions pan out.  As of the 5:00 a.m. forecast discussion from the NHC, I agree with that intensity forecast, however I am not ruling out the possibility of FIONA becoming a CAT 2 hurricane in approximately 72 – 96 hours, to which the majority of the intensity guidance suggests.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AND PWAT FROM CIMSS
FIONA.SHEAR
FIONA.UPPER
FIONA.PWAT
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT  17/0900Z 16.4N  63.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 16.7N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 17.1N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 17.7N  67.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 18.6N  68.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 60H  19/1800Z 19.7N  69.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  20/0600Z 20.8N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  21/0600Z 23.0N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/0600Z 26.0N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal07_2022091712_intensity_early

GFS WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FORECAST
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-3502400
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3502400
SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC SHEAR FORECAST
Screenshot 2022-09-17 at 08-58-26 https __hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu
A HURRICANE WATCH has been issued for portions of the Dominican Republic:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane 
Watch for the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo 
Engano westward to Cabo Caucedo and for the northern coast from 
Cabo Engano westward to Puerto Plata.
The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical 
Storm Warning for St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to 
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to 
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano westward to
Puerto Plata
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to 
Barahona
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Fiona. Additional watches or warnings could be required today.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Fiona can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible on Puerto Rico late 
tonight or on Sunday, and within the hurricane watch area in the 
Dominican Republic late Sunday through Monday. 
Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the 
Leeward Islands within the warning area through this morning. 
Tropical storm conditions will reach the U.S. and British Virgin 
Islands later this morning, spread westward across Puerto Rico this 
afternoon and tonight, and reach portions of the Dominican Republic 
on Sunday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible across the watch 
area in the Dominican Republic beginning Sunday afternoon.
RAINFALL:  Fiona is forecast to produce the following rainfall:
Leeward Islands and Northern Windward Islands: Additional 2 to 4
inches.
British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 4 to 6 inches with local 10 inches
possible.
Puerto Rico: 5 to 10 inches with local 16 inches possible,
particularly across eastern and southern Puerto Rico.
Dominican Republic: 4 to 8 inches with 12 inches possible,
particularly on the far eastern coast.
Haiti: 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches.
Turks and Caicos: 4 to 10 inches.
These rains are likely to produce flash and urban flooding, along
with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly in southern
and eastern Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic.
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas
in areas of onshore winds if the peak surge occurs at the time of
high tide...
Southern coast of Puerto Rico...1 to 3 ft
Localized coastal flooding is also possible elsewhere in Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.  For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore
winds in the Dominican Republic.
SURF:  Swells generated by Fiona are affecting the Leeward Islands,
the northern Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.
Swells will spread westward to the northern coast of Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas over the
weekend. These conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

The following are graphics and links are from the NHC:
090101_key_messages_sm
090101_spanish_key_messages_sm
PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
090101
LOCAL NWS HURRICANE PRODUCTS LINK (CLICK THE BARK BLUE HEADINGS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/171237.shtml?

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
I will continue to monitor FIONA and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes to the forecast

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-09-17 13:59:11

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