May 15, 2021

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TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 11, 2020…7:50 P.M. EST

5 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 29
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Storm ETA did in fact briefly become a category one hurricane this morning, attaining sustained winds of 75 mph.  However, just as ETA attained this status, analysis of satellite imagery indicated dry air entrainment began and entered the core.  The cold cloud tops and organized convection that was over the center, dissipated rather quickly as the thunderstorm activity collapsed.  I did this analysis by my cell phone this a.m.  NHC on the 10:00 a.m. updated forecast discussion verified my findings.  I did call for ETA to most likely attain CAT 1 status if it could fight the drier air long enough.  As of the 4:00 p.m. EST update from the NHC, the following was available:
4:00 PM EST Wed Nov 11
Location: 27.3°N 83.6°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb / 29.23 in.
Max sustained: 70 mph
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Based on current shear and upper level wind maps, ETA is in an upper level environment which is still somewhat favorable, hence the flareup of convection.  However, based on satellite loop imagery, ETA could make landfall sooner than anticipated.  Once landfall occurs, ETA should begin to weaken at a steady pace.

NHC reported a movement to the North.  However based on close satellite analysis, it appears ETA may be moving  with a more eastward component.  Based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, ETA should continue along a track inline with the ATCF model guidance:
NHC FORECAST TRACK

ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

The following is NWS Doppler radar (animated) from COD (College Of Dupree).  Click image for animation controls:
COD DOPPLER RADAR

The following are forecast rainfall totals out to 7 days from the ECMWF, GFS and NOAA WPC


https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1605138850
The following NWS map will provide you up to date information for your area.  Click the map, then click again on your area:

NWS WARNING AND HAZARD DISPLAY

Please refer to the following links from the NHC for up to date information.  Local Products link will provide you with impact threats and preparedness actions.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071759.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/180402.shtml?3-daynl

NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS (CLICK BOLD BLUE TEXT)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/071638.shtml?


I will continue to monitor ETA, however this may be my last update on the system.  I’ll be monitoring the system in the Caribbean, and will begin updates beginning Monday…time to rest from all this activity

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST



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