Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).
The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season. The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy
We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names. The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda
STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 6
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 29
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5
U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening. IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life. This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.
THETA was named yesterday evening, and is now tropical. This is no threat to the U. S. We do have another INVEST in the Caribbean, and another possible area to watch near South America at the moment. The main focus of this synopsis will concern Tropical Storm ETA. I may not have the update info for the 10:00 p.m. advisory, as I want to get this information out.
Based on satellite loop imagery, ETA appears to be intensifying, and trying to develop an inner core. The storm may be slightly ingesting some of the drier air to the west, noted by an arc cloud moving away from the storm on the west side.
GOES 16 ETA SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOP
The following was available as of the 7:00 p.m. intermediate advisory:
6:00 PM CST Tue Nov 10
Location: 23.5°N 84.7°W
Moving: N at 7 mph
Min pressure: 989 mb / 29.21 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
It is noted in this update, the central pressure had fallen from 3 hours ago, from 992 mb to 989 mb.
Based on my analysis of current wind shear from CIMSS, ETA is currently in a low shear environment.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
Based on my analysis of forecast wind shear maps from the GFS and ECMWF, ETA should have a brief favorable environment for further intensification for about the next 24 hours regarding shear. Both models do indicate some improvement in the upper level 200 mb pattern up to about 36 – 42 hours. I pretty much basically agree with the NHC intensity forecast, as far as the strengthening and weakening pattern, should ETA continue to fight the drier air, and given the structure and core is so compact and the storm is rather small, I believe ETA will intensify into a hurricane, most likely a category one. This will all depend on the timing of the forecast upper level features, shear pattern, and forward motion of the storm. The storm has a good chance of accomplishing this, given it is much smaller in nature than it was prior to the SW turn it made. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are posted, with a Tropical Storm Watch posted for a portion of the Florida West coast.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 10/2100Z 23.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
NHC states the storm is moving to the north. However, based on the above satellite loop imagery, it appears the storm is moving toward the ENE. Although I agree with the NHC forecast track in general, in my analysis this evening of forecast steering maps, and having been following the trend of the track guidance models, along with the current satellite motion, I believe NHC will adjust their track toward the east, closer to the Florida coast, which is shown in forecast steering layers maps. Based on this, I believe the storm will be closer to the Florida coast, and may very well likely follow the track of the consensus models TVCA/TVCN, and NHC states this may happen. This would especially hold true if ETA intensifies steadily and becomes a hurricane, especially if it become stronger than a CAT 1, as it will be steered more by the mid – upper level flow. Residents along the West coast of Florida should monitor the progress of this storm closely, and follow the instructions from the NWS local products. IF ETA strengthens as mentioned (my forecast), the following COULD be the potential storm surge for the west coast of Florida (plus or minus 20% of the values shown), should a shift in track occur.
ETA SLOSH GRAPHIC MEAN TIDE
NHC FORECAST TRACK
00Z TRACK GUIDANCE
The following NWS map will provide you up to date information for your area. Click the map, then click again on your area:
NWS WARNING AND HAZARD DISPLAY
Please refer to the following links from the NHC for up to date information. Local Products link will provide you with impact threats and preparedness actions.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS (CLICK BOLD BLUE TEXT)
I will continue to monitor ETA, and will try to issue another update late tomorrow evening.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST