May 12, 2021

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TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 09, 2020…8:05 P.M. EST

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 28
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
ETA made landfall in Lower Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys.  ETA is now moving toward the SW due to the mid to upper level low over the extreme NW Caribbean, and a deep layer ridge situated over FL. and the Gulf of Mexico.  The following was available as of the 7:00 p.m. intermediate advisory:

7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 9
Location: 23.5°N 85.0°W
Moving: SW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb / 29.38 in
Max sustained: 50 mph

Satellite loop imagery shows a more compact core with inner ring convection:
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

The core appears to be getting better organized and could be an indication that the forecast of a reduction in wind shear may be starting.  Analysis of forecast wind shear maps indicates  from the GFS and ECMWF, as well as the 200 mb wind pattern does seem to indciate improving conditions inline with the recent SHIPS diagnostic message.  Based on this analysis, ETA should once again re-intensify for a period of 24 – 36 hours.  At the moment, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, however I am still not willing to rule out ETA briefly becoming a hurricane before any weakening occurs.  I feel this may be a slimmer probability now, as  very dry, mid level air shown in the water vapor loop covers most of the area near and around ETA.  IF the drier air does not intrude into the core,  then brief hurricane intensity could occur.  IF the forecast track holds true, then ETA should encounter shear of greater than 20 kts at around 72 hours, and a degrading outflow pattern, along with the dry air beginning to entrain into the storm.  Based on this, I have to concur with the NHC forecast in that ETA may become a Tropical Depression by the end of the forecast period (120 hours).
GOES 16 WATER VAPOR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 09/2100Z 23.7N 84.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
ETA is now moving SW due to the flow as explained.  Based on my analysis this evening of forecast steering maps, and the Global models, I agree with the NHC forecast track during the next 48 – 72 hours period.  ETA should complete a cyclonic loop during the next 24 hours, before slowing and then beginning a northward track, as a deep layer trof approaches.  Thereafter, models do differ on future track.  Now, talk about the guidance models blowing it last night, information provided by the Gulfstream flight, guidance became very tight, and indicated a path to the West Central Florida area.  However, earlier today and as of current, guidance is in very much less agreement.  I believe what the guidance models may be having a problem with is twofold.  Intensity guidance differs with the Global models and hurricane models, as well as the NAVY COAMPS model.  The HWRF, HMON, and NAVY model indicate a major hurricane in the future, while the Global models all differ in various intensity.  Second, I believe the models are having difficulty identifying which feature to latch onto, whether the core of ETA, which is very compact now, or the overall larger flow pattern involved with the large mid to upper low.  Given this, I agree with the NHC current forecast track, in which the consensus models TVCN / TVCA have just adjusted accordingly.  This will most likely change again, all depending on the future steering pattern, actual intensity, and structure of the core.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

00Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
https://i0.wp.com/hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al292020/track_early/aal29_2020111000_track_early.png


I will post projected rainfall totals and radar data once ETA begins the supposed northward journey and gets closer to the Gulf coast.

The following NWS map will provide you up to date information for your area.  Click the map, then click again on your area:
NWS WARNING AND HAZARD DISPLAY

Please refer to the following links from the NHC for up to date information.  Local Products link will provide you with impact threats and preparedness actions.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071759.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/180402.shtml?3-daynl

NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS (CLICK BOLD BLUE TEXT)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/071638.shtml?


I will continue to monitor ETA, and will try to issue another update late tomorrow evening.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 



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