December 3, 2020

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 08, 2020…8:00 P.M. EST

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
DONATIONS NEEDED AND APPRECIATED


Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 28
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!

The center of ETA is now approaching the Florida Straits.  Satellite imagery indicates thunderstorm activity is void in and around the center due to intrusion of mid level dry air, and ETA currently looks more sub-tropical.  The storm is currently moving to the NW
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

A dry slot is noted in water vapor imagery affecting the eastern portion of the storm.  This was not forecast by the ECMWF nor GFS global models last night, or in current analysis:
GOES 16 WATER VAPOR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Analysis of forecast steering maps this evening, as well as track model guidance, indicate ETA should continue on this track through tonight, and turn west by morning.  Late Mon., Eta is forecast to make a SW dip and could stall.  The west motion and SW dip is in response to the steering pattern involving a deep layer ridge near the U. S. Mid Atlantic region, and the upper level trof in the NW Caribbean.  Eventually, a broad mid latitude trof sweeps across the U. S., and begins to erode the western periphery of the ridge, allowing ETA to begin moving NWD, then NEWD.  Based on my analysis, I agree with the current NHC forecast track, however I believe ETA could come ashore a little further south than shown in the forecast map from the NHC, but possibly just north of the Pinellas county area.  I am currently basing this on the model guidance, which has clustered tighter due to the NHC NOAA Gulfstream aircraft synoptic surveillance mission from this morning.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE


Depending on whether or not ETA can recover, track guidance could shift depending on future intensity of the storm, however I feel at the moment, there shouldn’t be any major shifts.  I will re-visit steering once ETA begins its northward journey.

As of the 7:00 p. m. intermediate update, the following was available on ETA:
7:00 PM EST Sun Nov 8
Location: 24.5°N 80.1°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb / 29.32 in
Max sustained: 65 mph

Based on analysis of the current wind shear map, ETA is experiencing 25 – 30 kts of shear.  Analysis of upper level winds again only shows an outflow channel over the center, and projecting itslef northward and around the eastern periphery of the storm, so air is still being evacuated from the storm at 200 mb.  Global models and SHIPS guidance agree in the reduction of wind shear in about 18 – 24 hours to around 10 kts.  Analysis of 200 mb streamline maps still indicates the outflow pattern to gradually improve as ETA exits the Straits of FL., and enters the GOMEX.  IF ETA can recover during the diurnal maximum overnight, fight off the drier air and develop convection over the center, the system could briefly become a category one hurricane for about 24 – 36 hours prior to wind shear increasing to unfavorable levels.  Given the uncertainty of recovery by my analysis, I have to agree with the NHC current intensity forecast, in that I had believed ETA could be a slightly stronger hurricane.  This premise was based on the RH forecast from the ECMWF and GFS models, which DID NOT indicate dry air intrusion until right near landfall.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 08/2100Z 23.9N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
ECMWF AND GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST AND RH FORECAST




The following watches and warnings are in place:

NHC WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY

ECMWF AND GFS 7 DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST


The following NWS map will provide you up to date information for your area.  Click the map, then click again on your area:
NWS WARNING AND HAZARD DISPLAY

Please refer to the following links from the NHC for up to date information.  Local Products link will provide you with impact threats and preparedness actions.
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/071759.shtml?

NHC GRAPHICS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/180402.shtml?3-daynl

NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS (CLICK BOLD BLUE TEXT)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls4+shtml/071638.shtml?



DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATIONS…CLICK THE FIRST GRAPHIC TO ANIMATE.


I will continue to monitor ETA, and will try to issue another update late tomorrow evening.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

eWeatherNews.Com | Newsphere by AF themes.