June 15, 2021

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TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 01, 2020…5:45 P. M. EST

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 28
HURRICANES: 11
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Depression 29 was upgraded to Tropical Storm ETA.  Current satellite loop imagery shows ETA becoming steadily better organized.  Upon analysis of visible satellite loop imagery earlier, hot towers were noted near the center of the storm.
GOES 16 CLOSEUP IR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Water vapor loop imagery indicates ETA has plenty of moisture, and is protected by the drier mid level air.
GOES 16 CLOSEUP WATER VAPOR LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

As of the 4:00 p.m. EST advisory from the NHC, the following was available on ETA:
4:00 PM EST Sun Nov 1
Location: 14.9°N 78.9°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb / 29.29 in
Max sustained: 65 mph
ETA was moving west at 15 mph, and I expect this motion to continue through tonight.  Tomorrow, ETA is forecast to make that turn toward the WSW to SW, although based on the last few frames of satellite loop imagery, it appears the CDO shifts slightly in that direction, although given the quicker organization, this could be somewhat of a wobble.  Based on analysis of the current forecast steering charts, and analysis of the Dynamic and Consensus track guidance, I concur with the current NHC forecast track which is close to the consensus.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE


One thing that concerns me however in analysis of current rack guidance, which the NHC has also picked upon is, at he end of the forecast track at day 5 (120 hours), there is uncertainty on what becomes of the remnant of ETA.  I noticed in analysis of track guidance during the past couple of days, that guidance was in good agreement of taking ETA SW and into the EPAC, which is still indicate by the ECMWF global models.  However, guidance has been trending away from that scenario, and now the more accurate consensus and dynamic models have trended to a sharp bend back toward the NE, close to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.  My concern is, we’ve seen the GFS doing a crazy scenario of stalling ETA just on the coast at landfall, then pulling it back to the NE, then crossing over Cuba, then into FL.  One of the bigger changes is to the ECMWF forecast.  The ECMWF still brings EAT inland on a SW path, pretty much dissipates it and sends it into the EPAC.  HOWEVER, the 12Z MSLP Normalized Anomaly map indicates a “split”, with another area developing over the Gulf of Honduras, and almost mimics the GFS scenario.  Based on the trend of guidance models, and the scenario of the GFS and ECMWF, I cannot totally rule this out.  It will all most likely depend on whether or not ETA totally dissipates, or stalls then follows the weakness.
GFS FORECAST

ECMWF


ETA is still experiencing favorable conditions of light wind shear (10 – 15 kts), decent upper level outflow, and moderate to high OHC.  Analysis of the wind shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS indicate wind shear is forecast to remain low.  Albeit current SHIPS guidance increases shear at 36 – 60 hours, the GFS and ECMWF indicate a favorable upper level environment as far as shear, very high moisture content from 850 – 500 mb and improving 200 mb outflow, prior to landfall.  Based on these conditions, ETA should continue to strengthen quickly.  In fact, I cannot rule out some rapid intensification based on these conditions, and information in the SHIPS R.I. section this afternoon.  From the NHC this evening:

The intensity guidance is much higher this cycle, and the various rapid intensification models show a much more significant chance of rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The DTOPS model indicates a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in wind speed over the next 24 hours, while the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 53 percent chance of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours.

SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC REPORT (CLICK LINK)
http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al292020/stext/20110118AL2920_ships.txt
Based on this analysis I expect ETA to become a hurricane either late tonight, or by tomorrow morning sometime.  I concur with the NHC intensity forecast, which has been increased to a strong Cat 2 at landfall with sustained winds of 110 mph.  Although given the much improved structure, and drop in barometric pressure of 8 mb in 3 hours (1000 mb at 1:00 p.m. and 992 mb at 4:00 p.m.), I am not totally ruling out the probability of ETA becoming another major hurricane prior to landfall.

NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH…INLAND
60H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH…INLAND

I will continue to monitor ETA until landfall and the few days after, and intend to have another update late tomorrow evening.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 



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