January 23, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

Tropical Storm Eta evokes multiple taskings to aid in its forecast – Hurricane Research Division

2 min read

NOAA Hurricane Hunters continue reconnaissance for Tropical Storm Eta, which threatens to bring tropical cyclone hazards to south Florida as it restrengthens over water. 

The G-IV aircraft took off for its last mission into Eta at 12:30 AM EDT from Lakeland, FL on November 8. By circumnavigating the periphery of the system, the data supplied hurricane experts with up to date information about the system’s interaction with the environment in which it is embedded. 

The P-3 aircraft will take off at 4:30 PM EDT on November 8 from Lakeland, FL to continue 12-hourly missions in order to investigate the cyclone’s development. NOAA flight crews will pause missions on Monday as the storm nears South Florida and coverage from NOAA’s ground radar network. AOML scientists anticipate subsequent flights to begin again Tuesday as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts that Eta will slow down prior to stalling in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Tail Doppler Radar derived reflectivity (left) and wind speed (right) at 2 km from Saturday’s P-3 mission illustrates the extent of Tropical Storm Eta’s wind and precipitation conditions.

A complicated environmental configuration adds uncertainty to the forecast of Tropical Storm Eta in the long term, and motivates the objectives for these flights.

Conducting center fixes for NHC and model initialization tactics for the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), the P-3 aircraft will locate and characterize the surface circulation and collect measurements that will optimize the performance of operational weather models.

Visible satellite imagery captured by GOES-East shows a gradual improvement to the structure of Eta’s convection where an impressive band wraps into the center.

Additional missions may become necessary as the system evolves and environmental conditions change. Beyond a 5-day forecast, NHC notes that numerical simulations diverge in their outcomes.

AOML scientists stress the importance of gathering aircraft observations of the storm during such times and actively adjust their flight plans to adequately monitor the progression of Tropical Storm Eta.

>> Scientist K. Ryan
>> Edits by L. Bucci and R. Kravetz

For details about reconnaissance aircraft missions, please see NOAA’s official Plan of the Day.

For the latest information about tropical cyclones and other weather systems, please visit the NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center.

For information on numerical prediction of tropical cyclones, please visit NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center.

To access updates on the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX) and other activities via Facebook, Twitter, or RSS feed, check out the NOAA/AOML/HRD page.

To directly access updates on IFEX HFP Operations via our WordPress blog on the web, check the site: https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/category/ifex-hurricane-field-program/

DISCLAIMER: The above discussion is intended to provide a brief summary of recent and future HRD Hurricane Field Program Operations. Any use of this material beyond its original intent is prohibited without permission of the HRD Director, Frank Marks (Frank.Marks@noaa.gov). Media inquiries should be directed to AOML Communications (aoml.communications@noaa.gov), Monica Allen (301-734-1123) or Monica.Allen@noaa.gov.

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