July 21, 2024

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 07, 2024…7:55 A.M. EDT

9 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

Please note!  I may not be able to provide severe weather updates, as given the state of the hurricane season, the tropics take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!
TROPICAL STORM BERYL
As of the 5:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on BERYL:
5:00 AM EDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 25.3°N 94.6°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb /  29.38 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
Based on my analysis of the current steering layer, BERYL is moving toward the weakness in the ridge, caused by the trough I’ve been speaking of for the past few days.  BERYL is now moving toward the NW.  A turn more to the NNW should occur sometime early tomorrow.  The NHC has stated the track has shifted slightly eastward, however landfall appears it should occur over the same area near Port Lavaca / Victoria area, if there are no further shifts in track.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
091527_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
ATCF 06Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2024070706_track_early
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm2
I recommend residents in Texas from Victoria to Galveston, monitor BERYL for any significant changes.
BERYL SWIR / WV SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
BERYL.SWIR
WV LOOP
BERYL.WV
Satellite loop imagery indicates the center of BERYL seems to be moving under the burst of convection that has appeared.  She is still fighting the dry air from the mid – upper low, however analysis of thee CIMSS shear map indicates BERYL is now in an area which shows shear has decreased.  There have been no changes in the global models forecast in that a radial shear pattern develops, with improved outflow at 200 mb.  The models also suggest an increase in mid level moisture near the core, which keeps the drier air out of the core and over the rainband area during her final 12 hours.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS / WIND SHEAR
BERYL.UPPER
BERYL.SHEAR
In addition, as BERYL approaches landfall, the shape of the coast will aid in what we term as “forced convergence”.  To my understanding, the shape of the coast, and counter-clockwise flow of the storm, “force” air back toward the center of the hurricane.  As a result, vertical motion can increase.  From NOAA / NWS:
Convergence in a horizontal wind field indicates that more air is entering a given area than is leaving at that level. To compensate for the resulting “excess,” vertical motion may result: upward forcing if convergence is at low levels.

This, combined with the upper level outflow (divergence), could allow BERYL, if not to go through a brief R.I. period, at least display a good rate of steady intensification about 12 hours prior to landfall, provided all other conditions materialize, with a higher probability now of R.I. during the last 6 hours prior to landfall.  Though the forecast indicates a CATEGORY ONE hurricane at landfall, based on the above conditions, and what I have experienced in the past as a forecaster, I still cannot rule out the possibility of BERYL intensifying to a low end CATEGORY TWO hurricane.  This IS NOT DEFINITE, but the possibility exists given the “positive” factors.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST AS OF 5:00 A.M.

INIT  07/0900Z 25.3N  94.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 26.3N  95.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 28.1N  96.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 30.2N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/0600Z 32.5N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/1800Z 34.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  10/0600Z 36.7N  91.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/0600Z 40.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/0600Z 43.5N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

The following is a lot of information to digest, but worth it.  Note on the SLOSH Storm Surge display, this is approximate storm surge values for the current forecast track.  This particular graphic, only had information for high tide.  SLOSH values are plus or minus 20% of the shown values (lower values for a weaker system of the category, higher values for top end of the category).  The graphic is currently for CAT 1 hurricane strength.

PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions. The following watches and warnings are in effect:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning has been extended along the Texas coast north of
Sargent to San Luis Pass.
A Hurricane Watch has been extended along the Texas coast north of
San Luis Pass to Galveston Island.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island to
Sabine Pass.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to High Island
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to High
Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston
Bay
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore
* High Island to Sabine Pass
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast 
should closely monitor the progress of beryl.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/071020.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/071027.shtml?


PLEASE, use the following link for specific instructions from your local NWS office.
NWS LOCAL HURRICANE PRODUCTS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/070924.shtml?

SLOSH MODEL STORM SURGE CAT 1 HIGH TIDE (VALUES ARE PLUS OR MINUS 20%)
BERYL.displayCAT1high
CAT 2 HIGH TIDE
BERYL.displayCAT2high

FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS FROM ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3
ecmwf-wave-gulf-sig_height_wave_dir-1720310400-1720310400-1720569600-40
ww3-gulf-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1720332000-1720332000-1720569600-40

NHC FORECAST PRODUCTS
091527_key_messages_sm
091527_spanish_key_messages_sm
091527_peak_surge

RAINFALL
091527WPCQPF_sm

091527WPCERO_sm
I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes to the forecast.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-07 11:51:38

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