July 21, 2024

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL 06, 2024…11:40 A.M. EDT

9 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good day everyone!

Please note!  I may not be able to provide severe weather updates, as given the state of the hurricane season, the tropics take precedence.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           3
HURRICANES:                 1
MAJOR HURRICANES:  1

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

Good morning!
TROPICAL STORM BERYL
As of the 11:00 a.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on BERYL:
11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 6
Location: 23.0°N 92.3°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb /  29.44 in
Max sustained: 60 mph
Based on my analysis of the current steering layer, BERYL is moving to the WNW.  Based on the flow, and position of the weakness in the ridge, her direction averaged out to around 297 degrees, which would fit the 300 degree motion designated by the NHC.  Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, BERYL should continue on this course until later today, when a more NW track SHOULD occur.  Current track guidance seems to be pretty well set, and is tightly clustered.  There doesn’t appear to be any major shifts at this time.  Based on this, I concur with the NHC forecast track .
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
091932_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
ATCF 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal02_2024070612_track_early
CURRENT STEERING LAYER
wg8dlm2
I recommend residents in southern Texas from Port Lavaca, southward, monitor BERYL for any significant changes.

I wanted to put a little note here…I know the track guidance has been shifting every update, BUT, that doesn’t mean I don’t know what I am doing, or not accurate in my forecasts, as well as various meteorologists.  The atmosphere is fluid, and constantly changing.  When I perform an analysis, I look at everything at every level of the atmosphere.  This info is from ONE model run, of the numerous models.  Once I analyze all the info, models don’t update for another 6 hours.  Between that time and the updated run, the atmosphere keeps doing it’s thing, and conditions MAY NOT pan out exactly as the models indicated earlier.  The more substantial / accurate runs are the 12Z and 00Z model runs, as this is when weather balloons are launched, and the information fed into the computers.  Big changes can occur during this time, and it only takes ONE item to change, to paint a whole different picture. For instance, in my last analysis yesterday morning, the ECMWF and GFS indicated dry air at the mid levels when BERYL entered the GOMEX, but didn’t show it intruding into the core.  This morning, a whole different ball game based on water vapor imagery.
BERYL IR / VIS SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
BERYL.IR
BERYL.VIS
WV LOOP
BERYL.WV
Satellite loop imagery indicates the center of BERYL was exposed too the SE of the convection.  However in the last few frames, the center seems to be moving slowly underneath the convection.  Hot towers were also noted flaring up within the area of heavy convection.  Take away from this, she should begin to strengthen soon as she appears to be slowly getting better organized.

Analysis of current CIMSS wind shear product indicates shear is around 25 kts over the center. Mid level shear was analyzed at 15 kts.  BERYL’s outflow has deteriorated to the south, but the upper air map indicates a well defined northern outflow channel.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS, WIND SHEAR and OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BERYL.UPPER
BERYL.SHEAR
BERYL.OHCBased on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to remain less favorable regarding shear, for approximately another 18 -24 hours.  Thereafter, once the current mid – upper level low backs farther away to the SW, the wind shear pattern is forecast to begin changing, and become very favorable, with both models indicating an almost textbook radial shear pattern, along with a well established 200 mb outflow.

BERYL will also be under the influence of the Right Rear entrance region of the jetstream.  This will allow for upper divergence over the GOMEX.  This will help “ventilate” the storm.  Both models still indicate high RH values at 850 mb, and much improved high PWAT as far as surface moisture by the time in the forecast period shown in the model stamp.  Both models indicate an improvement of moisture at the 500 mb level by then as well.  BERYL will be traversing lower OHC for the next 24 hours, but OHC is forecast to be around 50 – 60 KJ/cm2 thereafter, which is the minimum required for a hurricane to rapidly intensify.  In addition, as BERYL approaches landfall, the shape of the coast will aid in what we term as “forced convergence”.  To my understanding, the shape of the coast, and counter-clockwise flow of the storm, “force” air back toward the center of the hurricane.  As a result, vertical motion can increase.  From NOAA / NWS:
Convergence in a horizontal wind field indicates that more air is entering a given area than is leaving at that level. To compensate for the resulting “excess,” vertical motion may result: upward forcing if convergence is at low levels.

This, combined with the upper level outflow (divergence), could allow BERYL, if not to go through a brief R.I. period, at least display a good rate of steady intensification about 18 – 24 hours prior to landfall, provided all other conditions materialize.  Though the forecast indicates a CATEGORY ONE hurricane at landfall, based on the above conditions, and what I have experienced in the past as a forecaster, I cannot rule out the possibility of BERYL intensifying to a CATEGORY TWO approximately 6 hours prior to landfall.  This IS NOT DEFINITE, but the possibility exists given the “positive” factors.
SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0375200THIS
gfs-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0375200THIS
200 MB STREAMLINE PATTERN (OUTFLOW)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0375200
gfs-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0375200
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST AS OF 11:00 A.M.

INIT  06/1500Z 23.0N  92.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 23.7N  93.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 24.9N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 26.2N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 27.7N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 29.3N  96.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  09/1200Z 30.9N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  10/1200Z 33.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/1200Z 36.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

The following is a lot of information to digest, but worth it.  Note on the SLOSH Storm Surge display, this is approximate storm surge values for the current forecast track.  This particular graphic, only had information for high tide.  SLOSH values are plus or minus 20% of the shown values (lower values for a weaker system of the category, higher values for top end of the category).  The graphic is currently for CAT 1 hurricane strength.

PLEASE click the links below, as they contain the public advisory which contains information on WIND, STORM SURGE, RAINFALL and SURF conditions. The following watches and warnings are in effect:

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to San Luis Pass
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande River
* The northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward
to High Island
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
Interests elsewhere in northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast
should closely monitor the progress of Beryl. A Hurricane Warning
will likely be issued for a portion of the Texas coast this
afternoon.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/061449.shtml?

AVISO PUBLICO
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATASAT2+shtml/061503.shtml?


NWS LOCAL HURRICANE PRODUCTS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/061509.shtml?

SLOSH MODEL STORM SURGE (VALUES ARE PLUS OR MINUS 20%)
BERYL.displayCAT1high
FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS FROM ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3
ecmwf-wave-gulf-sig_height_wave_dir-1720224000-1720224000-1720612800-80
ww3-gulf-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1720245600-1720245600-1720612800-40
NHC FORECAST PRODUCTS
091932_key_messages_sm
091932_spanish_key_messages_sm

091932_peak_surge

091932WPCQPF_sm
091932WPCERO_sm
I will continue to monitor BERYL for any significant changes to the forecast.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-07-06 15:35:40

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