June 29, 2022

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TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 05, 2022…6:45 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Tropical Storm ALEX  continues to move quickly to the ENE toward the island of Bermuda.  Based on the NHC 5:00 p. m. advisory, the following was available on Tropical Storm ALEX:
5:00 P.M. EDT Sun Jun 5
Location: 31.5°N 71.5°W
Moving: ENE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb / 29.26 in
Max sustained: 65 mph
ALEX was named at 2:00 a.m. EDT in the NHC update.

I don’t have satellite imagery from that time, however current satellite imagery still shows a sheared, disorganized system. 
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY VISIBLE, IR AND WATER VAPOR
70946349
15488403
36154142
Current intensity guidance indicates ALEX should begin a weakening process in about 24 hours.  Based on the forecast of increasing wind shear form analysis of SHIPS guidance, the prescience of very dry air seen in the above water vapor loop being ingested, the forecast of dry air to remain at the 500 mb level, and surface moisture forecast to remain east of the center, I do concur with the intensity guidance, and NHC intensity forecast.  Now, based on the fact that the NHC has been reporting over the past few days, that this system as PTC ONE was not organized enough in order to be classified as a Tropical Storm, and even mentioning in the 5:00 a.m. discussion that the coldest convective cloud tops were still “shunted” east of the LLC, meaning it was still disorganized, with the center reforming near the area.  Based on this, and analysis of satellite over the past day, I do not believe this EVER became organized enough of for the time criteria specified for a tropical cyclone.  In other words, the NHC appears to still be naming systems with exposed LLC’s, vice the specified criteria.  From the NHC 5:00 a.m. update:

After the previous advisory, data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and GOES-16 Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicated that a well-defined center had formed in association with what is now Tropical Storm Alex. With that said, the satellite structure of the storm is hardly classical, with the coldest convective cloud tops all shunted east of the low-level center which is still occasionally reforming northeastward where the strongest convection is located.

Criteria for a Tropical Cyclone:
Tropical Cyclone
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Being that ALEX has strengthened under constant wind shear and having an exposed LLC, this leads me to believe there are baroclinic process involved, vice barotropic, and I believe this should not have been named, being it looks pretty much the same on satellite as it did when it was PTC ONE.  Another point is, maximum winds still continue to be displaced from the COC.

ALEX is still under strong shear, with shear forecast to increase through the period.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
91L.shear
MTCSWA ALEX WIND FIELD
2022AL01_MPSATWD_2022060518_SWHR
ATCF INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal01_2022060518_intensity_early
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 29.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 33.2N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 07/1800Z 34.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/0600Z 34.2N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0600Z 34.7N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0600Z…DISSIPATED

Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering maps, ALEX should continue to the ENE throughout the period, with some slight fluctuations.  Based on analysis also of forecast steering guidance, models are fairly in agreement of the track, and I concur with the NHC forecast track map:
NHC FORECAST TRACK
204056_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
ATCF GUIDANCE
aal01_2022060518_track_early

The following is information on watches and warnings from the NHC, as well as key messages and hazards associated with ALEX:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rain across Bermuda late tonight into Monday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of Bermuda beginning late tonight or on Monday morning.

This will be my final synopsis on Tropical Storm ALEX, as by the time I get home to perform any analysis, ALEX may already be past Bermuda.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-05 22:42:23

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