July 21, 2024

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PTC 1 FORECAST SYNOPSIS UPDATE…ISSUED JUN 18, 2024…5:45 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Good day everyone!

I will be out of the office from 27 June through 29 June.  I will resume updates upon my return.

Please note!  In regard to the severe weather forecasts, I will try to have them back for ENHANCED areas or above, once some of the models I use for analysis come back up.  They are still down, and contain information I use to provide a more accurate forecast.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For those who follow me on Facebook, I must ask that you please bookmark this wordpress site, send an email to the address at the bottom of the page to be put on the client email list, or visit my site on Facebook.  https://www.facebook.com/groups/950628219042775

Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE
Satellite loop imagery indicates though appearance of the overall system has become better defined, there is still a lack of a well defined center.

GOMEX IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP PTC ONE
GOMEX
GOMEX.VIS
As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on PTC ONE
5:00 PM EDT Tue Jun 18
Location: 22.1°N; 92.7°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 999 mb / 29.50 in
Max sustained: 40 mph

PUBLIC ADVISORY LINK (CLICK FOR WATCHES / WARNINGS/ HAZARDS)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/182031.shtml
LOCAL PRODUCTS FOR PTC 1
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls1+shtml/182108.shtml?
Based on my analysis of current and forecast steering layers maps, this system should continue on  WNW or NW motion through tomorrow. Although the NHC indicates by tomorrow the system begins taking a more westerly track to which I concur with them for right now, based on my analysis of forecast steering maps, I prefer the TVCA / HWFI forecast track from the 18Z update, and believe this may nudge a little further north.  Also, SHOULD the center reform eastward, the track of PTC 1 would shift somewhat northward The following is from the NHC advisory:

Regardless of the exact track of the low, this system will have a large area of heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding and tropical-storm-force winds well north of the center. Importantly, the official wind speed probabilities are likely underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.
NHC FORECAST TRACK MAP
205332_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind
RAL ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE (CREDIT TO UCAR / NCAR)
aal01_2024061818_track_early

CURRENT STEERING LAYER (CIRCLE IS APPROXIMATE LOCATION)
wg8dlm1
The following are the MSLP anomaly maps from the ECMWF and GFS global models
MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1718712000-1718755200-1718874000-40

gfs-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1718712000-1718755200-1718874000-40
Based on analysis of current conditions from CIMSS, wind shear has slackened, and should not be much of an issue tonight, as the pattern is a radial shear pattern, and is centered almost directly over the current designated center.  Conditions should remain conducive during the next 24 – 36 hours, before wind shear increase to around 20 kts thereafter. Both the GFS and ECMWF agree on this, as well as the latest SHIPS diagnostic report. The current upper level map from CIMSS indicates a little less of an outflow pattern, however an outflow channel is established to the north, and clockwise around the eastern portion of the system.  As the system approaches the coast, the pattern is forecast to change to an outflow channel to the west of the system.   Both models agree on plenty of moisture based on analysis of forecast 850 – 500 mb relative humidity forecasts, and PWAT (Precipitable Water).  Based on this, I concur with the NHC intensity forecast for PTC 1.  18Z intensity guidance from UCAR indicates the more accurate intensity guidance models are clustered around a 40kt (45 mph) system.  It is suggested by modeling, that the center will slowly consolidate during the next 24 hours, and PTC 1 may be named ALBERTO
RAL 18Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal01_2024061818_intensity_early
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 18/2100Z 22.1N 92.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 19/0600Z 22.7N 93.9W 35 KT 40 MPH…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 20/0600Z 23.3N 97.8W 40 KT 45 MPH…NEAR THE MEXICO COAST
48H 20/1800Z 23.3N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
60H 21/0600Z…DISSIPATED
The following are the forecast 7 day precipitation amounts from the ECMWF, GFS, and WPC QPF forecast:

ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-total_precip_inch-9316800
gfs-deterministic-gulf-total_precip_inch-9316800
p168i
GRAPHICS FROM THE NHC (CLICK FOR LOOP FOR WIND FORECAST)
205332
205332_peak_surge
205332_key_messages_sm
205332_spanish_key_messages_sm
205332WPCQPF_sm
205332WPCERO_sm
I will continue to monitor PTC 1 closely during the next 24 – 36 hours, and should have another update late tomorrow morning.

Elsewhere, regarding the area of interest for the SEUS, I will begin mentioning this should development begin as it approaches the U.S. east coast.  Currently, based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models, the GFS has dropped the idea of development, and now indicates this remains a tropical wave, along with the ECMWF.  I will continue to monitor the progress of this during the next 48 hours.
NHC GTWO (1)

two_atl_7d1
In addition, it may be Deja vu as the NHC indicates another area in yellow, that could develop where PTC 1 is located.  This would be the same process as PTC1, in that development could come from the CAG (Central American Gyre), which I have provide a graphic from this mornings update of the GFS 850mb forecast winds map.  I will be monitoring this area closely as well throughout the week.
NHC GTWO (2)
two_atl_7d2

GFS 850 MB WINDS FORECAST SHOWING CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE
gfs.t06z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-06-18 21:40:03

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