TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 99L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 18, 2022…8:45 P. M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The disturbance I’ve been monitoring in the NW Caribbean is now over the Yucatan peninsula.  Looking at the NHC 5 day GTWO map for 8:00 p. m., against current satellite loop imagery, I feel the “X” is a little too far south.  You have to look very close at the satellite loop imagery.  The NHC has now increased the probability of cyclone development to MEDIUM (40%) over the next 5 days.  Based on the recent run of the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability map for a Tropical Depression, the update shows a 90% probability of a depression forming during the next 24 – 72 and 48 – 96 hours.
INVEST 99L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES FROM WEATHERNERDS



NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST


As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 99L:
2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 18
Location: 17.7°N 90.7°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

The disturbance has moved 1.4 degrees North, and 2.2 degrees West during the past 24 hours, hence WNW.  Base on analysis of current forecast steering layers, I believe this motion to continue for the next 24 – 30 hours, then change to more of a NW motion.  Given that it appears there may have been a center shift, depending where this enters the BOC, combined with forecast steering, I feel this may be more on the eastern side of the NHC hatched area, and could make it a little further north than shown in the NHC graphic.  Right now, complete track guidance has not been issued yet, so consider this low confidence right now on forecast track.  This is just my educated opinion, based on what I am seeing at the moment.
ATCF INITIAL GUIDANCE

The ATCF report had sustained winds at 25 mph.  Analysis this evening of both the ECMWF MSLP anomalies forecast, relative humidity forecast up to 500 mb, and precipitable water forecast, still indicates high levels of moisture over 99L once it enters the BOC.  Based on forecast wind shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS, and 200 mb streamline forecast, BOTH models show a favorable shear pattern with low shear over the “center” (albeit both models differ in location) and a radial shear pattern, and a 200 mb radial outflow pattern, although the 200 mb outflow will be east of the center of the system.  The red circle in the graphics represent where the models show the center located.  Although the center is off center from the radial outflow, the pattern will provide diffluence aloft, aiding in ventilation of 99L.  I will be using the ECMWF graphics.
MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY

WIND SHEAR FORECAST

200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST

CURRENT SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM CIMSS


Again, as I mentioned with INVEST 98L, these forecast conditions are very favorable for development.  SHOULD the conditions actually come to fruition, and maintain until landfall as forecast, save any dry air intrusion, I believe at the moment INVEST 99L should attain Tropical Depression status prior to landfall.  If there has been any center shift eastward and slightly north, 99L may remain over water a little longer, and would have even a better chance at attaining Tropical Depression status.  In my opinion, we should see the same type of organization as with 98L, in that once away from land, organization should become very steady, again, based on the current forecast conditions.

I will continue to monitor INVEST 98L and the tropics for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST