November 30, 2022

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 99L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 18, 2022…8:45 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The disturbance I’ve been monitoring in the NW Caribbean is now over the Yucatan peninsula.  Looking at the NHC 5 day GTWO map for 8:00 p. m., against current satellite loop imagery, I feel the “X” is a little too far south.  You have to look very close at the satellite loop imagery.  The NHC has now increased the probability of cyclone development to MEDIUM (40%) over the next 5 days.  Based on the recent run of the ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability map for a Tropical Depression, the update shows a 90% probability of a depression forming during the next 24 – 72 and 48 – 96 hours.
INVEST 99L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES FROM WEATHERNERDS
36581100ir
50279327
36581100wv
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_72

eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_96
As of the 18Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 99L:
2:00 PM EDT Thu Aug 18

Location: 17.7°N 90.7°W
Moving: WNW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

The disturbance has moved 1.4 degrees North, and 2.2 degrees West during the past 24 hours, hence WNW.  Base on analysis of current forecast steering layers, I believe this motion to continue for the next 24 – 30 hours, then change to more of a NW motion.  Given that it appears there may have been a center shift, depending where this enters the BOC, combined with forecast steering, I feel this may be more on the eastern side of the NHC hatched area, and could make it a little further north than shown in the NHC graphic.  Right now, complete track guidance has not been issued yet, so consider this low confidence right now on forecast track.  This is just my educated opinion, based on what I am seeing at the moment.
ATCF INITIAL GUIDANCE
atcf-invest99l-1660845600-0845600
The ATCF report had sustained winds at 25 mph.  Analysis this evening of both the ECMWF MSLP anomalies forecast, relative humidity forecast up to 500 mb, and precipitable water forecast, still indicates high levels of moisture over 99L once it enters the BOC.  Based on forecast wind shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS, and 200 mb streamline forecast, BOTH models show a favorable shear pattern with low shear over the “center” (albeit both models differ in location) and a radial shear pattern, and a 200 mb radial outflow pattern, although the 200 mb outflow will be east of the center of the system.  The red circle in the graphics represent where the models show the center located.  Although the center is off center from the radial outflow, the pattern will provide diffluence aloft, aiding in ventilation of 99L.  I will be using the ECMWF graphics.
MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-0932000
WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0932000
200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0932000
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh_fourpanel-0932000
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-pwat-0953600
CURRENT SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM CIMSS
INVEST 99L.SHEAR
INVEST 99L.UPPER
Again, as I mentioned with INVEST 98L, these forecast conditions are very favorable for development.  SHOULD the conditions actually come to fruition, and maintain until landfall as forecast, save any dry air intrusion, I believe at the moment INVEST 99L should attain Tropical Depression status prior to landfall.  If there has been any center shift eastward and slightly north, 99L may remain over water a little longer, and would have even a better chance at attaining Tropical Depression status.  In my opinion, we should see the same type of organization as with 98L, in that once away from land, organization should become very steady, again, based on the current forecast conditions.

I will continue to monitor INVEST 98L and the tropics for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-19 00:40:03

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