TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 98L…GULF OF MEXICO FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 12, 2022…10:00 P. M. EDT

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening shows we still have limited activity in the EATL, with a wave south of the Cape Verde islands. The ECMWF EPS has the highest probability for develop during the next 24 – 72 hours only, before the probabilities become less favorable. Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS indicate dry air at 500 mb to remain near the area, but show an increase in moisture in about 7 to 8 days from now. I will continue to monitor this wave for any significant changes.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITIES 24 – 72 HOURS

We now have activity in the GOMEX. This area caught my eye yesterday evening during analysis, so I went back and looked it over after publishing my forecast. There was some slight rotation with the area last night, which appeared elongated due to the fact it was associated with a surface trof of lower pressure. Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates a more pronounced rotation, however it remains somewhat elongated. The NHC has taken interest, and has designated the disturbed weather as INVEST 98L.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES ATLANTIC INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR

GOMEX IR AND VISIBLE LOOP

NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

As of the 00Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 98L:
8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 8
Location: 28.1°N 92.9°W
Moving: WSW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
INVEST 98L is currently moving toward the WSW at around 6 mph. Based on analysis of forecast steering layers, I expect this motion to continue through tomorrow, with more of a turn westward thereafter. IF nothing changes, I would expect the main effects to be felt near Corpus Christi, TX., south to near Padre Island. I’ll be revisiting the track sometime tomorrow as actual track will depend on organization.

The ATCF BTK report indicated maximum winds were 25 mph. Based on analysis this evening of MSLP normalized anomalies maps from the ECMWF and GFS, both models indicated a more defined low pressure system, prior to it coming ashore. The winds shear and 200 mb streamline forecast indicate a breif (12 hour) window of low shear and a radial shear pattern over the “center” of the low, as well as a very brief radial outflow pattern at 200 mb. This will ventilate that area for a short time. Both models also indciate favorable moisture from the surface, up through the 500 mb level with fairly high humidity levels, and high PWAT values for the duration of the system. Right now, the ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast indicates a 50 – 60% probability of a tropical depression. However, based on what appears to be some very favorable conditions as just mentioned, during the brief period of the radial upper level outflow, and very warm SST’s, in the GOMEX, It would not surprise me to see this try to organize more quickly during the 12 hour window. The CIMSS current shear and upper level winds maps indicate a radial shear pattern, with shear on the order of only 10 – 15 kts, and a semi-radial outflow pattern in the upper level winds map. Based on this, should the forecast parameters pan out, we may see a depression prior to this coming ashore.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST

The following are the various maps from the ECMWF and GFS:
MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES

ECMWF AND GFS SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 33 HOURS

ECMWF SURFACE WIND SPEED AND GUSTS FORECAST

CURRENT WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM CIMSS

The following is from the NHC regarding this feature:
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
ECMWF, GFS AND WPC 5 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)