December 4, 2022

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 98L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 13, 2022…1:20 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:     3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Analysis of GOES 16 satellite loop imagery from Weathernerds, still indicates a stable atmosphere over the Atlantic, by the Stratocumulus cloud deck (popcorn clouds)
from midway, over to the African coast, where a new tropical wave is noted.

INVEST 98L has not shown any organization since last night.  Water vapor loop imagery and the CIMSS dry air map seem to indicate a slight dry air intrusion.
GOES 16 ATLANTIC VISIBLE SATELLITE AND IR, VISIBLE AND WV GOMEX LOOP IMAGERY
52534654eatl
52534654
52534654vis
52534654wv
CIMSS DRY AIR MAP
INVEST98L.dry
The NHC has not changed the probability for development, and maintains a LOW (10%) probability during the next 5 days.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast on the other hand is being generous with a 70% probability over the next 24 hours.

NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

two_atl_5d1
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST 24 – 72 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_72
As of the 12Z ATCF BTK report, the following information was available on INVEST 98L:
8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 13
Location: 28.0°N 94.7°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1013 mb / 29.91 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
INVEST 98L is currently moving toward the WSW at around 9 mph.  Based on the very little movement in the latitude position, 98L could be getting ready to make the westward track motion sometime today.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layers, I expect the model guidance track to pan out.  I prefer the TVCA guidance at this time.   IF nothing changes, I would expect the main effects to be felt near Corpus Christi, TX., south to near Padre Island.
ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal98_2022081312_track_early

The ATCF BTK report indicated maximum winds were 25 mph.  Analysis of the ECMWF AND GFS global models still indicate 98L coming ashore either very late this evening, or early on Sunday morning.  Based on the MSLP anomalies forecast maps, and intensity guidance from the RAL site, neither indciate a tropical depression.
98L INTENSITY GUIDANCE
aal98_2022081312_intensity_early

However, 98L has approximately a 12 – 18 hour window where conditions will be almost very favorable for development.  The ECMWF and GFS show almost exactly the same forecast conditions of low shear with a radial pattern, radial outflow at the 200 mb level, although slightly offset from the center of 98L, and ample moisture based on the PWAT and RH forecast up to 500 mb, with both parameters still indicating high values.
ECMWF SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST (RED CIRCLE INDICATES LOCATION OF 98L)
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-0424400
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-0424400
ECMWF PWAT AND RH VALUES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-pwat-0428000
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh_fourpanel-0424400
In addition, GOMEX SST’s are extremely warm at 29.5C (85.1F)
GOMEX SST CURRENT MAP
oisst_gulf_2022081200
Based on my 20+ years of tropical forecasting, these brief, but very favorable forecast conditions would imply INVEST 98L should be able to go through some type of increased organization, and possibly up to tropical depression status right near the time of landfall.  However, intensity guidance does not indicate this at the present, although the ECMWF EPS disagrees in a manner of speaking.  The following is contained in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook:
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

ECMWF, GFS AND WPC 5 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-tx-total_precip_inch-0780800
gfs-deterministic-tx-total_precip_inch-0824000
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The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE)

I will continue to monitor INVEST 98L and the tropics for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-13 17:14:00

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