TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 30, 2020…10:30 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 27
HURRICANES: 11
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L continues to become slowly better organized this evening.  As of the 00Z ATCF BTK update, the following was available:
8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 26
Location: 14.3°N 68.8°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb / 29.74 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGE (CLICK FOR ANIMATION)

The disturbance is moving on a general westward track at the moment, based on ATCF BTK information, satellite loop imagery, and the 700 – 850 mb steering map:
CIMSS 700 – 850 MB STEERING MEAN

Analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicates 96L should remain on a pretty much westerly course for the next 48 -60 hours.  Thereafter, somewhat of a WSW bend should occur, based on the forecast configuration of ridging to the north of the system.

Based on current track guidance models, the system should come ashore in central America by day 5 in the period.  The ECMWF model indicates this crosses into the EPAC, while the GFS meanders the system after landfall, and pulling NNE then into Florida.  Based on current forecast steering maps, I am more opt to buy into the ECMWF solution right now.
ATCF 00Z GUIDANCE
ECMWF FORECAST

GFS

INVEST 96L is currently in an area where wind shear is light, with an upper level anticyclone near the center.  Based on the very low shear values, INVEST 96L should be able to continue to grow vertically.  Analysis of the current upper level wind map indicates an outflow pattern is trying to consolidate over the system itself.  Outflow is currently being provided by the large upper level high NE of the system.  Albeit the clockwise flow aloft is not over the disturbance, the flow north of the disturbance is pulling air aloft, away from the system.  This should allow for further gradual strengthening.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb streamline pattern, mid level RH values, and TPW values from the ECMWF. INVEST 96L should remain in a very favorable environment for strengthening, and if these conditions come to fruition as forecast in about 24 hours, INVEST 96L should begin to intensify at a little quicker pace.  Based on the forecast conditions, I do believe 96L will become a Tropical Depression sometime this weekend.  IF these conditions do materialize and remain intact, I cannot rule out some very steady intensification beginning in about 48 hours as OHC is still moderate to high in the forecast track.  Based on my analysis of these forecast conditions, and updated intensity guidance models, 96L could become a Tropical Storm in around 36 to 48 hours, and may attain category one hurricane status before landfall.  Again, since we are in the initialization period, future intensity will remain to be seen.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST


ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) FORECAST

TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW)

00Z INTENSITY GUIDANCE

I will continue to monitor INVEST 96L and intend to update this weekend.

Elsewhere, during the week of Nov. 7 – 14, there is a possibility of another development occurring, possibly in the Caribbean.  Based on analysis of the MSLP Normalized Anomalies forecast maps from the global models, a ridge is forecast to move over or near the vicinity of the NEUS.  When this occurs, since winds flow from high pressure to lower pressure, a normal lowering of pressures should occur from the Bahamas, southward.  In addition, colder temperatures will be pretty far south, and given to colder weather over the U. S., the landmass will be much colder than the SST’s over the GOMEX and Caribbean Sea.  This allows for maximum net lift over the water, as warmer air rises, which is pretty much what causes lowering pressures.  This type of development is known as a “pattern response”.  I am going to only post the ECMWF on this to save time.  I’ll be looking at this closely down the road.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS