TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 04, 2023…11:35 A.M. EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          11
HURRICANES:                 3
MAJOR HURRICANES:  2

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

I am currently monitoring INVEST 95L in the far eastern Atlantic.  Currently the NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability for development over the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

As of the 8:00 a.m. ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
8:00 AM EDT Mon Sep. 04
Location: 11.3°N 33.3°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Satellite loop imagery this morning indicated not much change to the system
INVEST 95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (WEATHERNERDS)


INVEST 95L is currently being steered by the combination of ridging, and a weakness to its NW, hence the current WNW motion.  Based on analysis of forecast steering and MSLP animations, INVEST 95L should continue on this general motion for about the next 48 hours.  Based on analysis of forecast steering and 500 mb geopotential height and speed animations, a trof begins to come SEWD, beginning to develop a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge, causing more of a pronounced WNW to NW track.  Based on the majority of the models, and forecast track guidance, this seems to be the case, and I currently agree with the 12Z ATCF guidance package cluster and the TVCA consensus model.  Thereafter, track will all depend again, on how strong INVEST 95L becomes, and actual setup and orientation of the trof / ridge pattern.  Currently, the majority of the global models do re-curve the system.  Bear in mind however, though the GFS is the outlier, the scenario in the 500 mb geopotential height animation COULD occur, but low confidence at the moment, based on the persistent cluster of the dynamic and consensus modeling.  I will however revisit track guidance after 120 hours (day 5) in the period from 12Z this morning.
CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING

12Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE

GFS 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FROM 120 HOURS
There has been no change in intensity since yesterday.  However based on current and forecast upper level conditions, it appears conditions continue to improve slowly, and may be getting gradually more favorable for intensification to begin.  The following are the current shear, upper level win, and TPW pattern from CIMSS:
CIMSS SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL WINDS, AND TPW



Conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable during the next 120 hours from 12Z, and by that time, models are in agreement of pretty much a textbook radial shear pattern and 200 mb upper level outflow pattern developing above the system, and centered over it.  I’ll be using the ECMWF graphics although there is agreement with the GFS and some of the hurricane models.
MSLP ANOMALY

WIND SHEAR

200 MB STREAMLINE

500 MB RH

PWAT

Based on this analysis, should these forecast conditions develop and persist, INVEST 95L could become a depression within the next 36 – 48 hours.  I thought we would have a depression by sometime later today, however conditions have been improving slower that forecast.  Based on the extremely warm SST’s and high OHC the system will be traversing, I believe the system could begin a period of rapid intensification when the forecast conditions become pretty much textbook at around 96 – 120 hours in the forecast period from 12Z this morning.  Based on my analysis, 95L could eventually become a CAT 3 to CAT 4 hurricane.  I will continue to monitor this system closely for any significant changes.  Residents in the Greater and Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of INVEST 95L closely.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com