TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 03, 2023…5:40 EDT

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          11
HURRICANES:                 3
MAJOR HURRICANES:  2

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

I am currently monitoring INVEST 95L in the far eastern Atlantic.  Currently the NHC has designated a HIGH (90%) probability for development over the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

As of the 2:00 p.m. ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
2:00 PM EDT Sun Sep. 03
Location: 10.5°N 28.3°W
Moving: WNW at 118 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
Satellite loop imagery this afternoon indicates a much better structured system with increased convection:
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 INVEST  95L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY


INVEST 95L is currently on the southern portion of some ridging over the EATL, and is currently being steered to the WNW, or just slightly north of due west.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, MSLP animations, and 500 mb height anomalies, I expect this general motion to continue over  the next 96 -120 hours.  Based on this, INVEST 95L should be very close to the Leeward islands in about 5 to 6 days.  Thereafter, I expect more of a slight shift west, briefly, with a possible slowing in forward speed, as by days 8 – 10, the subtropical ridge is forecast to breakdown, with a weakness developing around the western periphery.  Thus far, global models have been in good agreement to this over the past few runs for the past couple of days, and is shown in longer range track guidance modeling.  Again, this will depend on how strong this system becomes, and whether or not ridging builds back.  In my experience in forecasting, I’ve seen these forecasts in steering, but sometimes the system does move slow enough and sometimes ridging will build back in, and a westward component, does occur.  Right now, the re-curve should occur, however one must be watchful.  The GFS brings this system the closest to the U.S. east coast in about 12 days near the OBX.  Based on my analysis, I concur with the current track guidance and prefer the TVCA consensus track.  I am posting the ECMWF 500 geopotential height animation, so you can see what the riding and trof pattern looks like, basically.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE

ECMWF 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANIMATION

INVEST 95L maximum sustained winds have increased to 35 mph.  Based on my analysis this afternoon, conditions have begun to improve of the system, with high TPW noted, and an improved wind shear pattern, indicating the developing radial pattern I mentioned in my forecast yesterday.
CIMSS PWAT AND WIND SHEAR


Based on my analysis of forecast conditions from both the ECMWF and GFS earlier this afternoon, nothing has changed in the forecast.  BOTH models indicate the radial shear pattern to continue to improve during the next 72 – 96 hours.  By 120 hours in the forecast period, the upper pattern is forecast to be textbook, directly over the system.  The models indicate a textbook radial shear pattern, as well as a textbook 200 mb streamline pattern, showing a radial outflow pattern.  IF these conditions come to fruition, they will be more favorable than IDALIA encountered as she traversed the GOMEX.  The system will also be over very warm SST’s  and high enough OHC for RI to occur and sustainability for a major hurricane.   Current intensity guidance shows a CAT 1 hurricane in about 96 hours and this could be correct.  I feel it should become a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.  Based on forecast conditions, I cannot rule out rapid intensification upon the system encountering the textbook conditions.  The following graphics are from the ECMWF and indicate the MSLP anomaly forecast, 500 mb relative humidity, PWAT, wind shear and 200 mb streamline forecast.  Circles drawn in the shear and 200 mb graphics indicate where the forecast position of the system should be.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY, 500 MB RH, PWAT, AND SHEAR FORECAST





Based on these factors, I cannot rule out INVEST 95L becoming a CAT 3 to CAT 4 hurricane sometime during its lifetime IF these forecast conditions persist past day 5.  I will continue to monitor this system closely for any significant changes.  Residents in the Greater and Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of INVEST 95L closely.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
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Have a blessed evening!