April 21, 2024

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 95L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED SEP. 02, 2023…6:05 P.M. EDT

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14– 16
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3 – 4

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:          11
HURRICANES:                 3
MAJOR HURRICANES:  2

Given that the NHC has named at least 3, if not more, garbage systems, I had to increase my seasonal forecast slightly.

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

Greetings everyone!
As a reminder, when forecasting tropical systems, if there are numerous systems to deal with, I always update on the systems that may present an impact or threat to either the U. S. or the Caribbean islands.  Anything far out in the Atlantic or something that may re-curve, take a lower priority as there is more time to deal with them.

I am currently monitoring INVEST 95L in the far eastern Atlantic.  Currently the NHC has designated a HIGH (70%) probability for development over the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO

two_atl_7d1
Recent satellite loop imagery indicates the system has not become any better organized over the past few hours.  As of the 2:00 p.m. ATCF BTK update, the following was available on INVEST 95L:
2:00 PM EDT Sat Sep. 02
Location: 9.5°N 20.3°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure:1010 mb / 29.83 in
Max sustained: 30 mph
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP INVEST 95L

invest.95L.IR
INVEST 95L is currently moving toward the west.  Based on analysis of current and forecast steering, I expect this general motion to continue for about 24 – 30 hours, prior to taking a more WNW track, which may be just slightly due north of west and should remain on that general course over the next 4 – 5 days.  Riding north of the system is currently forecast to remain in place during the next 7 days, with noted fluctuations in both strength and orientation.  From there, we’ll have to see whether it tries to continue with a more westward component, or if enough of a weakness develops on the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge for the system to begin to recurve.  This will depend on forward speed of the system, and how strong or weak it may become.  As the system becomes better defined, I’ll get a better idea on future track, as guidance should be fairly locked on.
18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal95_2023090218_track_early
INVEST 95L has shown no change in intensity from this morning.  Based on my analysis of current wind shear and upper level winds from CIMSS, it appears the 2 main factors preventing this is, easterly wind shear still remains over the system, and upper level winds are still zonal, so we have no established outflow yet.  Based on analysis of the 850 and 500 mb vorticity maps, vorticity at 500 mb is off slightly toward the west, therefore, the system is not quite “vertically stacked” yet.  These levels have to line up in the vertical, in order for the heat energy to focus in a smaller area, in a column.  I about 30 – 36 hours however, the ECMWF indicates the wind shear pattern should improve, with the beginning of a radial shear pattern.  In fact, the forecast conditions you heard me mention previously for IDALIA are forecast to materialize.  The ECMWF forecast indicates a textbook radial shear pattern, high PWAT (Precipitable WATer), high RH though the mid levels, and 5 -7 days down the road, a well established 200 mb outflow pattern, which is forecast to be centered over the system by day 7, very warm SST’s and high OHC.  Based on this, we could see another powerful storm develop.  Right now, intensity guidance is weak, the GFS shows nothing, and the ECMWF is weak as well.  However, if the forecast conditions materialize, we saw what happened with IDALIA.  The models started weak with her as well during initialization.  This will most likely change, should 95L get its act together.  At the moment, I recommend residents of the Lesser and Greater Antilles monitor the progress of this system closely.
ECMWF FORECAST 120 HOUR MSLP, WIND SHEAR, 200 MB STREAMLINE, 500 MB RH, AND PWAT
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-mslp_norm_anom-4088000
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-4088000
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-z200_speed-4088000
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-z200_speed-4260800
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh500-4088000

PWAT EXPLAINED
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/899/

I will continue to monitor this system throughout the week for any significant changes, and will update as necessary.

The following map will allow to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-09-02 21:52:53

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