TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 25, 2022…9:20 A. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good morning everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The NHC  has held the probability of cyclone formation to MEDIUM (60%) during the next 5 days regarding INVEST 94L.  NHC has added a LOW (20%) probability over the northern GOMEX for an area of low pressure that could form around TUE/WED of next week.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED TO OUTLOOK)


Based on the ATCF BTK report from 12Z, the following information was available on INVEST 94L:
8:00 AM EDT Sat Jun 24
Location: 8.3°N 35.3°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1011 mb / 29.85 in
Max sustained: 25 mph

Looking at the information, the forward speed has come down, and pressure has dropped 1 mb since last nights update.

Satellite loop imagery this morning indicates the disturbance is producing disorganized shower activity.  You can pretty much pick out the circulation center, and note that shower activity is limited and scattered about the center.  You’ll notice the second wave I mentioned last night is looking decent as far as rotation.  94L appears a little ragged, and this may be due to some slight ingestion of drier air, based on the presence of arc clouds noted in satellite analysis this morning.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY



Based on the ATCF BTK information, INVEST 94L was moving toward the west at about 20 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were 25 mph.  Based on analysis of current steering layer winds, a weakness in the ridge is imposing a just north of due west motion, in combination of the sub-tropical ridge producing a westward motion.  Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, I have to agree at the moment with the NHC projected motion, which is what current model guidance is indicating, which is keeping the system a little further south than last nights forecast.   This would be due to the forecast steering pattern inducing more of a east to west flow, fluctuating between 270 – 280 degrees. Of course I always caution, changes could occur depending on if the steering mean changes and how “deep” the system becomes.
CIMSS CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN

ATCF 06Z TRACK GUIDANCE

The following are the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble guidance

Based on this analysis, the INVEST should approach close to over the Windward Islands in about 96 hours from 2:00 a.m. this afternoon, and may pass in between Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago.  One item to note, the INVEST MAY be approaching, or have already become a Tropical Depression by that time.

Based on analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS, INVEST 94L is under very little shear, at the moment, and during the next 60-96 hours in the forecast period, the wind shear “pattern” is forecast to become slowly more favorable for development,  based on both the ECMWF and GFS global models.  I’ll post both the MSLP anomalies forecast maps so you can see where the models show the system in relation to the shear pattern
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST


ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR

The latest SHIPS diagnostic report calls for wind shear to reduce to single digits in about 36 hours.

Both models still indicate a slowly improving moisture pattern during the time period indicating high relative humidity up to the mid level, and increasing PWAT values as far as surface moisture.  I am posting only the ECMWF animation for both.  The animation shows the disturbance near 47 – 48 west longitude in the first frame, then you can follow the animation and increase in moisture as it approaches the islands:
ECMWF 500 MB RH AND PWAT FORECAST


Based on analysis of current track guidance and OCH, INVEST 94L will be traversing OHC values of 50 kj/cm2, which increase to 75 kj/cm2 at the islands, which is a plus for development

Based on the premise of the models indicating improving conditions, and recent intensity guidance,  I believe a Tropical Depression could form within the next 72 hours from 06Z this morning, or at least see some significant organization, should model information be accurate.

The current ECMWF EPS cyclone probability model indicates a high probability for a Tropical Depression, and medium probability for a Tropical Storm:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY


I will continue to monitor INVEST 94L for any significant changes, and for any significant changes in the forecast pattern.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST