July 3, 2022

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 15, 2022…7:15 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

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For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat. 
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

INVEST 93L moved over land earlier this afternoon.
The NHC has decreased the  probability for formation over the next 5 days to LOW (20%).
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
Based on analysis of current satellite loop imagery, and the recent CIMSS IR satellite image with center location, you’ll note the COC moved just inland over Nicaragua.

GOES 16 FLOATER IMAGERY IR AND VISIBLE LOOPS
78586695
57249403vis
CIMSS IR WITH CENTER LOCATIONS
93L.IR

Based on the last ATCF BTK information at 18Z (2:00 P.M. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L:
LOCATION: 12.5; 84.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 25 MPH
MOTION: WNW 6 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 mb / 29.80 in

Based on the ATCF BTK (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast system Best TracK) product, maximum sustained winds remained 25 mph.  Although there has been no change in the forecast of very favorable moisture from the surface to 500 mb, there has been a chnage in the shear forecast. The SHIPS forecast still calls for shear to diminish to below 15 kts by 48 hours in the period from 18Z, and down to single digits between 60 to 84 hours, the pattern has change from more of a radial pattern, to a more zonal to semi-radial pattern.  This could still allow for development with these conditions, however, it won’t matter a whole lot IF the INVEST remains over land.

Based on track information, the INVEST was moving toward 300 degrees, or just slightly north of WNW at around 6 mph.  Based on 18Z model track guidance, there is still the indication INVEST 93L will move more toward the NW by 24 hours from this afternoon, and then gradually bend back toward the west.  Now, based on the NHC 5 day outlook graphic, INVEST 93L appears as if it should make it to the Gulf of Honduras, and eventually into the extreme southern BOC.  However, the majority of the guidance models, including the consensus models, keep the path further south, with possibly edging or just skirting the water. 
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal93_2022061518_track_early

Though it could be possible for a brief exit into both bodies of water.  Current steering shows more of a westward flow, and forecast steering shows more of a WNW motion between 24 – 48 hours, however I do believe I’ve found what could cause the “arcing” path shown by guidance. The only bad thing is, the only forecast steering map available to me is the GFS, as the PSU E-wall site no longer displays NOGAPS, and the CMC is not legible.
CURRENT LAYER MEAN STEERING
wg8dlm1
GFS FORECAST STEERING CARIBBEAN SEA 24, 36, AND 48 HOURS
gfs_uv_700_850_carib_24
gfs_uv_700_850_carib_36
gfs_uv_700_850_carib_48
ATLANTIC FORECAST STEERING 48 HOURS SHOWING SOUTHERN RIDGE
gfs_uv_700_850_atlantic_48
Based on this analysis, I believe at this time that 93L may continue on WNW track, but further south, in line with the majority of the guidance models.  I believe the “arc” takes place due to close proximity flow coming up from the south near Central America, then “looping” around the center.
gfs_uv_700_850_carib_48.2SHOULD it re-merge into the Gulf of Honduras, then that would be the area where development would occur briefly, based on the wind shear forecast.  Should I be incorrect, then I’ll have to perform a re-analysis, looking back at what I may have missed.

I will continue to monitor the area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in the forecast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-15 23:14:15

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