June 25, 2022

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 14, 2022…8:35 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

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For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat. 
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The broad circulation we’ve been watching in the SW Caribbean Sea, has been designated INVEST 93L
The NHC has maintained a MEDIUM (40%) probability for formation over the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
Satellite loop imagery indicates a better defined area of low pressure, with clear counterclockwise rotation.  Please forgive the “jumping” of the image, as I was not able to eliminate it:
GOES 16 FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
15110938
15110938vis
GOES 16 ATLANTIC WIDE LOOP
15110938wide
Based on the last ATCF BTK information at 18Z (2:00 P.M. EDT), the following information was available on INVEST 91L:

LOCATION: 11.8N;82.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 25 MPH
MOTION: WNW 5 – 6 MPH
PRESSURE: 1009 mb / 29.80 in

Maximum sustained winds were reported in the BTK report as 25 mph.  Analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate pretty much no change in the forecast regarding sufficient moisture from the surface through the 500 mb levels, based on analysis this evening of surface to 500 mb RH vales and surface moisture based on forecast PWAT values.  INVEST 93L is still under some 25 – 30 kts of wind shear this evening.  The current SHIPS information indicates wind shear to remain in place, with a slight reduction in the 48 hour mark from 18Z this afternoon. However, based on analysis of the wind shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS, wind shear is forecast to reduce, with a fairly favorable pattern developing over the Gulf of Honduras. SHIPS diagnostics concurs with a reduction in shear values to single digits.  This is forecast to happen between 84 – 96 hours out in the period.  Right now, this tends to correlate with the ECMWF and GFS shear forecast.  Both models indicate an improved 200 mb streamline pattern with more of a radial type outflow pattern, just offset from the GFS forecast of the low center.
GFS AND ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5553600ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5542800
ECMWF AND GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-5553600
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-5553600
Based on the analyzed parameters, and given the close proximity to land, further development or organization should be slow to occur with INVEST 93L.  Should INVEST 93L survive any land interaction as indicated by current track guidance, I believe at the moment, the best chance for development into a Tropical Depression should occur once the system moves over the Gulf of Honduras.

Information from the ATCF BTK report indicated the disturbance was moving very slowly at 285 degrees true or toward the WNW.  Analysis of the current steering layer mean tends to indicate this, as winds over the disturbance and vicinity are mainly light and out of the west, and a weakness in the subtropical ridge is noted over northern Mexico (NW of the area 93L is embedded in).  This would have the tendency to yield a WNW motion.
CURRENT STEERING LAYER MEAN
wg8dlm1
Based on analysis for forecast steering over the next 5 days, and current track guidance, INVEST 93L may take a more pronounced WNW track within the next 24 – 36 hours, or even possibly a NNW motion (which could be brought on by land interaction), then into the Gulf of Honduras.  The majority of guidance models show this, and while I generally lean toward the consensus models, based on the forecast steering pattern, 93L could be on the southern portion of the track, just south of the TVCA.  I would not focus much on the guidance models, as we have still a poorly organized low at the moment, and any center reformation, and any land interaction could result in a change in the track guidance forecast.  You’ll note a large spread in the model guidance right now. For all intents and purposes however, this is the best scenario, based on initialization.
ATCF 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE
aal93_2022061418_track_early
I will continue to monitor the area during the next 48 – 72 hours for any significant changes in the forecast, and for any further organization.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-15 00:32:15

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