July 24, 2021

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO / INVEST 92L / INVEST 94L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 14, 2021…8:45 P.M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 16 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:       4 – 5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2021 SEASON TOTALS:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0

Based on updated information in climate models, my seasonal forecast may change, once I have time to perform a total analysis.

The following is the list of storm names for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Ana  Bill  Claudette  Danny  Elsa  Fred  Grace  Henri  Ida  Julian  Kate  Larry
Mindy  Nicholas  Odette  Peter  Rose  Sam  Teresa  Victor  Wanda
As a storm becomes named, I will be marking it in bold red to keep track of the activity for this Atlantic season.

Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates a little more activity than my previous update.  You’ll note TD 2 heading away from the U.S. coast, INVEST 92L in the BOC, and INVEST 94L off the coast of Africa.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
43875039atl
T. D. TWO
51626757
INVEST 92L
43875039al92
I will touch somewhat on “T. D. 2” first.  This was designated at 11:00 a.m. this morning.  Based on the advisory discussion, the low advanced ahead of the front, which would allow it to be classified tropical or sub-tropical.  SST at the time were in fact warm enough to support tropical development.  Based on the forecast discussion from the NHC, they state this could become a tropical storm tonight.  Granted, surface analysis did reveal it was not attached to the front, I have 2 problems with this being classified “fully tropical”.  My feeling is, maybe subtropical at best.  First, like Ana, this does not appear to be fully warm core, as AMSU data showed a cold core at least halfway up through the atmosphere.  Second, the depression is under 30 -40 knots of wind shear.  These conditions indicate to me, that any strengthening, and current maintenance of the system will be due to baroclinic forcing.  True tropical systems do not maintain or strengthen under baroclinic conditions.  Baroclinic conditions are associated with your mid-latitude cyclone, or sometimes sub-tropical systems, as these conditions develop at or “near” a frontal boundary.  This system departed a frontal boundary this afternoon.
CIMSS 1500Z AMSU DATA
202102L0614_1522_xsect.2

TD2 WIND SHEAR
td2.shear

Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS, 92L should move back fully into the BOC in about 48 – 72 hours.    This is when we “should” begin to see an increase in convective activity, and a more consolidated area of low pressure.  Right now, both intensity and track guidance should be considered low confidence, as there is no well defined closed low for the models to initialize on.  However, based on analysis of forecast steering maps, it appears 92L may meander close to the coast during the next 48 hours, then head northward.  This would explain the NHC outlook of calling for this to move northward by midweek, and a depression to form by late in the week.  NHC has designated a HIGH (70%) probability for development during the next 5 days. The ECMWF EPS probability forecast indicates a HIGH probability for a depression to form, and has increased the probability for a tropical storm.
NHC GTWO 5 DAY (LINKED FOR TEXT)
two_atl_5d1ECMWF EPS FORECAST
ecmwf-tcprobs-all-conuswide-prob_td_ecmwf-1623672000-1623931200-1624363200-80

ecmwf-tcprobs-all-conuswide-prob_ts_ecmwf-1623672000-1623931200-1624276800-80

ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1623672000-1623844800-1624114800-80

gfs-deterministic-gulf-mslp_norm_anom-1623693600-1623844800-1624104000-80
RAL TRACK GUIDANCE
aal92_2021061418_track_early
GEFS TRACK GUIDANCE
gfs-ensemble-invest92l-1623672000-3672000
CMC ENSEMBLE
cmc-ensemble-invest92l-1623672000-3672000
We are going to have to wait and see how conditions play out as far as what intensity this may reach.  The ECMWF still indicates some favorable conditions such as ample moisture up through 500 mb initially, but as this gets into the N. GOMEX, dry air intrusion becomes noted at the 500 mb level.  As far as shear, close analysis of the ECMWF indicates lower shear over and just outside of the “core” for most of the journey. In fact  the most recent SHIPS diagnostic report indicates shear to be at or below 15 kts through the period.  One limiting factor may be the lack of outflow in all quadrants, or radial outflow.   The ECMWF still indicates limited outflow, which will originate from the system center, and spreading out in the N and NE quadrant.  This could be enough to produce a minimal tropical storm IF the system begins to consolidate as soon as the vorticity is totally back out over the water.  Based on what I am seeing, especially in the precipitable water loop, this could be an east weighted system.
ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND 200 MB STREAMLINES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh_fourpanel-1623672000-1623931200-1624104000-80
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-3931200

ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-4017600
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it’s still a wait and see situation, until I see how things come together, if and when this begins moving north.  I will continue to monitor this area closely over the next 72 hours.  Regardless of development, copious amounts of rainfall could occur over a portion of the Gulf Coast area
ECMWF AND GFS 7 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-total_precip_inch-4276800
gfs-deterministic-gulf-total_precip_inch-4298400
INVEST 94L is the area near the African coast you see in the satellite imagery.  I have not had the chance to fully analyze this, and probably won’t until we see what becomes of 92L.  However, the NHC states that some development could occur over the next few days, before dry air aloft, and shear limit it.  However, the current SHIPS diagnostic report indicates sufficient RH from 700 – 500 mb over the next 96 hours, and wind shear below 20 kts during the next 5 – 7 days.

Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-06-15 00:47:36

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