June 26, 2022

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Tropical Depression Formation Likely Later This Week in the Gulf of Mexico

2 min read

The remnants of Hurricane Agatha continues to move northeastward across the Yucatán Peninsula and will emerge over the northeastern parts of the Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the remnants a 70% chance of developing into a tropical system once again. Tropical depression formation is likely; but, if it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Alex. It will move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico throughout the end of the week and move across the Florida Peninsula starting late Friday night and emerging over the Atlantic by Saturday afternoon or early evening, bringing with it heavy rains and breezy conditions.

Once it moves out over the Atlantic, it will continue to move away to the northeast and will become a fish storm. Odds are high that it will be at tropical storm strength by Sunday just off the coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.

While the system will not make a direct impact on the Gulf Coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, there may be an increased risk of rip currents late this week and through the weekend.

Here is the latest from the NHC:

NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (05/31/2022 @ 1 pm CDT)

A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatán Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatán Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatán Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatán Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

• Formation chance through 48 hours… medium… 40 percent.
• Formation chance through 5 days… high… 70 percent.

Scott Martin

2022-06-01 00:51:05

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