January 20, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 06, 2020…8:55 P.M. EST

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 28
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Depression ETA has moved back into the W. Caribbean, and is currently moving to the NE.  Hurricane Hunter data indicated the center was located further south on the afternoon discussion, and multiple vorticies were detected.  However, on current satellite loop imagery, the center is hard to find.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Based on my analysis of lower level convergence (blue contours), upper level divergence (yellow contours) and vorticity (orange contours), I will not rule out a center reformation a little more to the east, under the colder cloud tops of the heavier convection. 
UPPER DIVERGENCE, LOWER CONVERGENCE, AND VORTICITY

Based on my analysis of the forecast steering maps, and trend of the track guidance, I pretty much agree with the NHC forecast track, however I believe the track may shift somewhat east after crossing Cuba and may be closer to Miami by the Monday forecast position, following the general forecast motion by the NHC.  Model track guidance has shifted eastward, and this could pan out IF the center relocates again.  This COULD effectively bring the storm closer to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula after it enters the GOMEX.  Both the Hurricane models eventually take this ashore over west central Florida, as well as the GFS.  Ensemble models have seem to have trended left in the GOMEX.  Once I can see how much this may organize before Cuba, and after the exit back into the water, I should have a better idea on track, depending on where the center actually becomes located, and analyzing trends in the track guidance.  The exact track is going to depend again on strength, and how the interaction with the trof and ridging forecast pans out.  The following graphics from the GFS and ECMWF, along with ATCF track guidance and Ensemble members:
GFS FORECAST


ECMWF

ATCF 18Z AND 00Z TRACK GUIDANCE


As of the 7:00 p.m. EST update, the following was available on ETA:
6:00 PM CST Fri Nov 6
Location: 17.7°N 85.8°W
Moving: NE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

Based on the current shear product from CIMSS, ETA is experiencing about 35 kts of shear, which is in disagreement with the current SHIPS diagnostics.  Based on the upper level winds, there is only one outflow path which traverses from SW to NE over ETA at the moment.  While I tend to agree with the NHC intensity forecast at the moment, I believe intensity is still going to be somewhat tricky.  While the ECMWF indicates development of an upper level cyclone over ETA, upper level outflow is forecast to remain about the same.  This however may be able to provide strong divergence aloft.  So for the time being, ETA should become a Tropical Storm on its way, and before hitting Cuba.  Shear is forecast to increase for a breif period, and ETA could weaken as shear is forecast to increase for the next 36 hours to unfavorable levels, then drop off at around 60 hours in the period to favorable levels through 96 hours from 00Z this evening.  The reasoning I am using for the tricky intensity scheme, is I will have to see how this interacts with the trof, which is forecast to develop into a mid to upper level closed off low, absorbing the storm, and whether or not ETA remains purely tropical, or becomes subtropical.  Another factor in this is, once ETA emerges from Cuba, the ECMWF indicates gradual improvement of upper level outflow.  Once ETA enters the GOMEX, analysis of upper level outflow suggests outflow could be sufficient enough to allow for possible hurricane intensity for a breif period.  However, at this time, global models do not indicate this.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
INIT 06/2100Z 17.3N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH…OVER WATER
72H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
The NHC forecast discussion states that at around the 72 hour mark, dry air entrainment should weaken ETA.  However, I will have to see this, as the ECMWF model indicates favorable moisture up to landfall, wherever that may be.  I’ll reiterate however, given all the factors involved, once ETA emerges off Cuba, I hope to have a better idea on future intensity as ETA approaches south Florida.
ECMWF 850, 700, AND 500 MB RH FORECAST 72 HOURS



I will try to post forecast rainfall totals and any other important information, probaly in tomorrows forecast.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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