January 23, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 04, 2020…9:10 P.M. EDT

7 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 28
HURRICANES: 12
MAJOR HURRICANES: 5

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Storm ETA was recently downgraded to a Tropical Depression.  I’d like to start by saying, after analyzing the ECMWF and GFS global models, forecast steering maps, and track guidance models, the scenario is confusing, as models are very far apart at the moment on future forecast track as well as intensity.  Given this, I want to caution that my next few updates should be considered low confidence until I can see the remnant of ETA emerge back over the Gulf of Honduras, or W. Caribbean Sea.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

As of 7:00 p.m. EST, the following was available on T. D. ETA from the NHC:
6:00 PM CST Wed Nov 4
Location: 14.1°N 86.1°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb / 29.59 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

The depression was moving toward the west.  This portion of the forecast is almost certain, unless there is a change in the strength of the current ridge.  The depression should continue to move westward during the next 6 hours, and based on forecast steering maps, should begin to move toward the WNW, and more toward the north by noon or shortly thereafter tomorrow, and move out over the Gulf of Honduras in about 24 – 36 hours from 12Z this morning.  Based on forecast steering maps, the motion toward Cuba should ensue.  However, here is where we begin to see differences.  The ECMWF takes the system over Cuba, then bends it north, then NW toward the GOMEX. then back to the NE.  The previous run of the GFS pretty much had followed this, except having it cross FL. from the SE, then into the Gulf and turn NE into the Big Bend area.  The current runs show the ECMWF bringing the system toward the FL. Panhandle as a 90 kt hurricane in a few days, while the GFS now sends the system southward after entering the GOMEX with a much slower solution, and stalling it over W. Cuba for a few days, then sending it west away from the U.S.  This is quite a discrepancy in six hours.  This is not the only dilemma…model guidance has gone bonkers, from being fairly clustered at 18Z with the consensus models in the straits of FL., to all over the place on the 00Z update:
18Z ATCF GUIDANCE

00Z GUIDANCE

I’m sure you’re probably scratching your head.  You’re not alone, however I will explain.  Having interacted with the mountainous terrain over Nicaragua and Honduras, the core took a beating.  With lack of convection around the “center”, and the convection being spread out, along with disruption and expansion of the LLC, the heat or heat energy is being spread out over a larger area, so the models are now having a hard time “latching” onto a defined center, just like we see during system initialization.  In addition, the system appears to be embedded within a larger gyre over this area.  So, while I agree currently with the NHC forecast track, track guidance should be considered low confidence in the next few updates, until the remnant emerges over the water and becomes organized once again.

The following are the ECMWF and GFS forecast maps.  Forecast hours are at the top of the maps:
ECMWF

GFS


Intensity may be tricky as well, albeit most of the guidance indicates T. .S strength between 50 – 60 mph as this approaches FL.  Now, I need to point out the scenario of the ECMWF.  An upper level anticyclone develops over the system when it emerges, however upper level outflow remains restricted mainly to a north side outflow channel.  Once the system enters the FL. straits, the upper level pattern gradually improves and eventually begins to become symmetric. IF the ECMWF is correct, then I cannot rule out another hurricane.  The type of structure as well, will have something to do with how this may intensify.  As this heads toward FL., interaction with the trof could absorb ETA, and the system MAY be more of a sub-tropical or hybrid feature, which also cannot be ruled out.  So pretty much, this is all going to come down to timing of the trof, different turns along the path, and how the upper pattern actually evolves.  For right now, I am going with the NHC intensity guidance.  Again forecasts should become more accurate once the system emerges back over water and how it becomes organized after.
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH…INLAND
12H 05/0600Z 14.2N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 16.5N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH…POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

ECMWF 200 MB WIND PATTERN FORECAST





I will continue to monitor ETA during the next 5 days, and try to update on a regular basis.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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