Tropical Depression 9 could hit Florida as a hurricane

WASHINGTON — Tropical Depression Nine has formed and the storm is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm over the weekend and eventually a hurricane next week. When the storm strengthens into a Tropical Storm it will be named Ian.

Computer models show the storm getting stronger as it moves toward Cuba and then entering the Gulf of Mexico next week. The storm will produce heavy rain in areas such as Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, and is expected to brush by Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. 

An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance mission will be investigating the system Friday.

The National Hurricane Center official track takes the storm over Cuba then to Florida, possibly as a Category 3 hurricane. Both the European and GFS models move the storm toward Florida. The models differ on the intensity of the storm. 

It’s still a bit early to say if this storm will have impacts on the DMV. The GFS brings a strong area of high pressure over the region, which would keep what is left of the storm away from the D.C. Metro area. Under this scenario, the DMV would remain completely dry.

The EURO still has high pressure in place,  but brings a likely weaker version of the storm close enough to bring some rain to the area. Under this scenario, the DMV would get some rain, especially along the beaches.

It’s important to note that the timing and track will change. 

The tropics are busy with Hurricane Fiona on the way to Canada and Tropical Storm Gaston in the Atlantic. Two other systems are being watched for possible development.