Tropical Depression 9 could hit Florida as a hurricane

WASHINGTON — Tropical Storm Ian has formed and the storm is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Sunday.  

Computer models show the storm getting stronger as it moves toward Cuba and then entering the Gulf of Mexico next week. Ian will produce heavy rain in areas such as Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, and is expected to brush by Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands with a Tropical Storm Watch covering Jamaica.

The National Hurricane Center official track takes the storm over Cuba then to Florida, possibly as a Category 3 hurricane. Both the European and GFS models move the storm toward Florida. The models differ on the intensity of the storm. 

It’s still a bit early to say if this storm will have impacts on the DMV. The storm will move over land and weaken, eventually losing tropical features.   The GFS brings the storm closer to the area, potentially dropping some rain late Friday into Saturday.

The European Model continues to take Ian over southern Florida and move the storm faster than the American model the GFS.  The European model eventually steers what will be left of the storm, further west, away from the DMV.   We could still see some light rain.  The GFS track would have a better chance of affecting the DMV next weekend. 

It’s important to note that the timing and track will change. 

The tropics are busy with post tropical cyclone Fiona on the way to Canada and Tropical Storms Hermine and Gaston in the Atlantic. One other system is being watched for possible development.