May 13, 2021

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29 FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 31, 2020…7:45 P.M. EDT

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 27
HURRICANES: 11
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4

U.S. LANDFALLS: 11
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 96L has become organized enough and has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 29.  As of the 5:00 p.m. advisory from the NHC, the following was available:
5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 31
Location: 15.0°N 73.2°W
Moving: W at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb / 29.71 in
Max sustained: 35 mph
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

T. D. 29 is moving toward the west at 15 mph caused by a ridge that extends from the subtropical Atlantic, to over Cuba and the Bahamas:

Based on my analysis of forecast steering layers maps, I expect this motion to continue through Monday morning.  Thereafter, as ridging begins to build over the GOMEX, a WSW motion should occur, and eventually turn to a more SW motion.  On this track, the system should make landfall over central America along Nicaragua sometime on Tuesday.  Based on forecast steering and update track guidance,  I agree with the current NHC forecast track.  The NHC mentions in there forecast discussion that the forecast track is of low confidence at or after day 5, due to the discrepancies in the ECMWF and GFS and the GFS Ensemble models. From the 5:00 p.m. discussion:

The cyclone is expected to continue westward for the first 36 hours and then slow down and turn west-southwestward by 48 hours as it approaches the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, in response to a building ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After that time, however, there is significant divergence in the models. For example, the ECWMF and its ensemble members continue on a faster westward motion across Central America, while the GFS and its ensemble members stall the system over the western Caribbean Sea through day 5. Given this discrepancy, the NHC official track forecast shows a slow motion on days 3 through 5, and brings the cyclone’s center slowly across northern Nicaragua, more or less in line with the multi-model consensus aids. This forecast is of generally low confidence, however, and significant changes could be required in later advisory packages depending on model trends.

The ECMWF still crosses the system into the EPAC, while the GFS, GEFS members stall the system just onshore of Nicaragua.  Analysis of these global models indicate what I just mentioned of the ECMWF.  However, there is agreement between the GFS, GEFS, and CMC Canadian model in stalling the system, then bringing it north toward Cuba, then into the Florida Peninsula (8 – 10 days out).  COULD this possibly happen…yes, however the probability is low at this particular time.  The only thing I am concerned about this, is if you notice the consensus and hurricane models, they no longer bend WSW into the EPAC, but now indicate a bend to the WNW.  Guidance will improve once the depression becomes further organized.
NHC FORECAST TRACK

18Z TRACK GUIDANCE


T. D. 29 is still in pretty much a favorable environment for further intensification, and based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS models, favorable conditions are forecast to remain present until landfall.  Wind shear should remain less than 15 kts, and based on analysis of the 200 mb streamline forecast, upper level outflow should remain in place, although sometimes not directly centered over the system, upper level air will still be evacuated at the 200 mb level, away from the system.
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ECMWF 48 HOUR 200 MB WINDS FORECAST

The system is currently sitting in an area where OHC is moderate to high, and the system will traverse these OHC values along the path until landfall.  Based on a forecast of these favorable conditions, and very ample moisture from the surface to 500 mb, I expect steady strengthening to occur.  I do expect the depression to become a Tropical Storm sometime early tomorrow.  Should conditions remain this favorable, significant strengthening may occur, if not a period where R. I. may try to occur. Based on this, and current SHIPS intensity forecast, we should see another category one hurricane prior to landfall. IF the system moves slower than shown by the ECMWF, and does not make landfall within the next 48 – 72 hours, I am not willing to rule out the possibility of a stronger hurricane, possibly pushing major status.  Again, this will depend on the forward speed and if favorable conditions remain through the period as forecast.
CIMSS OHC

CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE
https://i1.wp.com/hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al292020/intensity_early/aal29_2020103118_intensity_early.png


I will continue to monitor the system for any significant changes during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, global models are in fairly good agreement of another pattern response development in the Caribbean during the week of Nov. 7 – Nov. 14  In order to avoid numerous graphics, I am going to just post the ECMWF probability forecast map.
ECMWF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY FORECAST


You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS



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