January 15, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 24, 2020…7:20 P.M. EDT

6 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 26
HURRICANES: 10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4

U.S. LANDFALLS: 10
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
Satellite loop imagery this evening indicates the trof of low pressure in the W. Caribbean Sea has become much better consolidated with some convection over the center, and heavier convection near the center, along with what appears to be some minimal banding features.  Based on this, and wind speeds reported by reconnaissance aircraft, the NHC has upgraded the system to Tropical Depression 28.  Based on the 5:00 p.m. EDT advisory from the NHC, the following was available on T.D. 28:
5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 24
Location: 18.7°N 83.0°W
Moving: NNW at 2 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb / 29.68 in
Max sustained: 30 mph

GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES (CLICK ON IMAGES)


The depression is almost stationary, with a reported motion of NNW at 2 mph.  Based on analysis of forecast steering, a weak shortwave trof is is moving across the SE U.S. and steering currents are forecast to remain week for the next day or two.  As stated in my synopsis yesterday evening, ridging is forecast to build in after that, however only for a breif period, when a strong upper trof is forecast to eject from the SW U.S. soon thereafter, which should begin the system moving toward the N and NNE.  While guidance is not in total agreement, the dynamic and consensus models are fairly tight at the moment.  It is noted the track has shifted considerably west since yesterday evening.  Based on analysis of forecast steering and current model guidance, I have to concur with the NHC forecast track.
ATCF 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE


NHC FORECAST TRACK


Maximum sustained winds were reported to be 30 mph.  Based on close analysis of satellite loop images, the LLC and mid level center are not exactly stacked at the moment, however given that wind shear is light, the presence of an upper level anti-cyclone over the center, high OHC and outflow pattern noted in the current upper level wind map, T.D. 28 should begin to consolidate a little faster, and this should allow for the depression to strengthen a little quicker in about 24 – 36 hours.  Based on analysis of the wind shear forecast maps from the GFS and ECMWF, the upper level anticyclone should remain with the depression for around the next 72 – 96 hours as the depression ends up in the central GOMEX.  The 200 mb streamline forecast pattern shows a decent outflow pattern through 48 – 72 hours.  This, combined with OHC values of 50 – 70 kj/cm2 will most likley allow the depression to become Tropical Storm ZETA.  In addition, based on analysis of just the shear forecast, 200 mb forecast, and moisture forecast (global model based), I cannot rule out at this time, of the system becoming a minimal CAT 1 hurricane after the system clears the NW tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.  After 72 hours, the NHC shows the system weakening.  This should be because of a combination of very low OHC at 25N latitude, and increasing shear.  Though the NHC cites increasing shear, global models indicated the upper level anticyclone to remain over the center of the storm, but did show the outflow pattern displaced well to the east of the center, which you may note in the 200 mb maps.  Based on this analysis, I am going to agree with the NHC intensity forecast right now, until I can see how T.D. 28 responds to the current favorable conditions, and what pans out during the next 48 hours in the upper level forecast.
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WINDS

ECMWF AND GFS 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

CIMSS OHC

A Tropical Storm Watch is issued for Pinar del Rio Cuba

KEY MESSAGES


I expect Tropical Storm Watches to be issued sometime on Tuesday for portions of the Gulf Coast states.

I will continue to monitor T. D. 28 for any (surprises) over the next 72 hours.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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