Toward the “Perfect” Weather Warning published – Hurricane Research Division

The book discusses how to make weather warnings most effective through communication and partnerships. Warnings are the result of a process from weather observations to weather forecasts to hazard forecasts to socio-economic impact forecasts to warning messages to decisions on how to avoid or mitigate the hazard. The book offers a framework across government, private business, civil society and the voluntary sector, and it emphasizes decision makers as the primary recipient of the warning and forecasting process.

The chapter that HRD scientist Rob Rogers co-authored, titled “Predicting the Weather: A Partnership of Observation Scientists and Forecasters,” describes how forecasts are the foundation of much of the information needed in weather warnings. To be useful, they require knowledge of the current atmospheric state as a starting point. The chapter looks at the methods used to predict weather and the resulting demands for observations, exploring the wide variety of sensors and platforms used to obtain this information. There has been a long history of close collaboration between sensor and platform designers and meteorologists that has produced observations resulting in spectacular advances in forecast accuracy. However, the latest high-resolution models require new approaches to obtaining observations that will require new and different collaborations. Examples are presented of partnerships in space observing and in aviation, a demonstration system from Canada, and the use of testbeds and observatories as environments for progress.

The entire book can be found online at https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7 For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov..