Today through Friday
The long-lived surface high pressure remains positioned east of the forecast area and over the lee side of the Appalachians as the short term period begins. Prolonged easterly low-level flow off of the western Atlantic on the southwestern flank of the high continues to promote moisture advection into north and central Georgia. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s across north and central Georgia today and Friday. A weak mid/upper level wave will also persist over the area today, allowing for additional moisture to advect into the forecast area. Not a lot of lift is present with this wave, but daytime heating is expected to allow for the development of scattered convection in central Georgia during the afternoon today where more moisture and some marginal instability will be present. Due to weak forcing and limited instability, strong to severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated, but the potential will continue to be monitored.
With weak winds overnight and moist conditions remaining through the area on Thursday and Friday, there is the potential for the development of patchy fog and low clouds during the early morning hours each day. On Friday, the upper flow begins to transition to a more zonally oriented flow while the surface high to the northeast of our area will diminish. Precipitation coverage will begin to spread farther northward on Friday, with slight chance and low-end chance PoPs anticipated over north and central Georgia.
Temperatures will be above climatological normals throughout the short term period. Afternoon highs will be mainly between 6-10 degrees above average today and Friday, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Because of the abundant atmospheric moisture, morning lows will be as much as 12-18 degrees above average each day, in the upper 50s and 60s across north and central Georgia.
Friday Night through Wednesday
The long term portion begins as a potentially wet one as a front approaches the area from the north and interacts with deeper layer moisture already in place. In addition, a shortwave will move out of the lower Mississippi valley and approach the local area providing additional lift. Have increased pops to high end chance for the western tier Friday night and likely for the NW corner Saturday afternoon. Should model consensus continue with this solution, this likely are may need to be expanded with subsequent forecasts.
Shortwave continues to move through the area through Sat night and into Sunday morning with the focus shifting to Central GA. Just enough instability in place for the duration of this event to warrant thunder mention in the grids. As mid level system exits the area Sunday afternoon, deep layer moisture is scoured out and are returns to slight chance pops.
Will go with primarily a dry forecast for Monday and Tuesday as closed upper low over the four corners and moving into Texas keeps major weather systems west of the area. After some major discrepancies among the models the last few days, the 00Z ECMWF looks to be coming in close to the GFS and allowing front to approach the area by the end of the forecast period. GFS does have an initial moisture surge that the ECMWF does not have and will use a blend for the Wed afternoon timeframe. Otherwise, temps look to be at or above normal for the balance of the extended portion.