And, I won’t lie, this is a dangerous set up as currently it looks crappy, but when I come back online Tuesday Night after the Jewish New Year Holidays it may look formidable and very threatening. I have said before there is more dry air there than being spoken about and it is having problems vertically aligning. You’ll remember we just went through this with Tropical Storm Fiona and eventually Fiona did pull it together and went all the way to the most Northern regions of Canada as a Hurricane. Discussion from the NHC above tells the story honestly and you can also tell how hard it is for the NHC to give a “down the road” forecast for a system that barely has a center and the winds are not what they should be currently. Early models, way back when, showed this happening and then they showed it suddenly intensifying. Yes, one model went that a way and another model went the other way BUT THEY BOTH SHOWED A STRONG HURRICANE and they both still do. But as I said last night for Ian to take advantage of that bath tub hot water it needs to be properly aligned vertically.
You can’t get much more transparent than the discussion from the NHC above. “Due to the current lack of center definition” that’s about as honest as it gets. They also remind you that once it does align and it is forecast to do so it will take advantage of that hot water and low shear environment.
My biggest concern with the forecast for IAN is that this is not just about the center of the Cone and where Ian makes landfall, but that it is very possible that Ian will be sheared after it attains a strong Major Hurricane status the shear weakens it as the front approaches and the severe squalls, storms with wind impacts, tornadoes and flooding will be far removed from the center of the cone. That means Miami, West Palm Beach up to Vero Beach and then later move that up the coast towards Jacksonville as wild weather sheared to the East over the whole state of Florida is a bad, dangerous set up.
Along the center of the Cone where Ian moves towards landfall it will pile up water in the many beautiful low lying areas some natural areas with a low population and others big cities such as Tampa. Whether the ultimate cone is the West or closer to land to the East water gets pushed NORTH up into the bays and inlets that make life on the SW and West Coast of Florida so beautiful.
Do not look at the city names.
Look at the land.
The inlets that run from S to N.
Water will get into those and spread out.
Flooding can happen without a direct hit.
With a direct hit you can get horrific flooding.
Water funnels into Tampa Bay.
Also down to the South near Naples and North.
This whole area is filled with estuaries.
Bays, canals, marsh and many communities exist.
Florida Keys north to Naples, Marco Island.
Even if it stays offshore the water moves onshore.
5 Day Rain Totals.
And after 5 they move North inland.
So ALL of Florida can get impacts.
Life threatening impacts.
Even if they are far from the cone.
As I said the other day.
This is not just about Florida.
It has a track that impacts many….
…way up the coast, inland and beaches.
Even I have wind probs inland in Raleigh!
As for the models, this is the bottom line, models change as reality happens and after Ian pulls it together and the front begins to dip and the Upper Level Lows do their thing… it’s a dance that is choreographed yet changes are made in real time as dancers seem to improve a bit on stage. Ian is on stage and things will change, they always do and there is always some wrench thrown in be it size, track, intensity or timing.
What do you do?
Old adage I grew up with….if a tropical system is South of you watch it carefully and pay attention!
IF there is a tropical system to the S of you …no matter what the forecast is you pay attention to it, know it is there and pay attention to the situation should it suddenly change and often even with the best work by the NHC something changes and you need to be able to adjust immediately. Don’t write it off and celebrate your good luck until it has passed you by and you are totally safe. IF things change or IF you are in the Cone and it’s time to put up the shutters than put up the shutters or go to a house that has shutters. IF you want to go to a shelter make sure you register as apparently you have to register at some shelters and when they are full they are full. This is what you should be doing now.
It’s that simple.
IF THERE IS A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO YOUR SOUTH MOVING NORTH YOU PAY ATTENTION EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN THE CONE. If you are suddenly out of the cone but near it KEEP WATCHING and checking in every 6 hours when the NHC upgrades their cone.
I would love to come out of Rosh Hashona and find out that it didn’t amount to anything and did some odd dance in the Gulf of Mexico doing loops where upwelling just wore it down like a child’s story your parents may or may not have read to you. Don’t think that’s gonna happen…….I don’t rely on miracles but I do pray. And, I suggest all of you know what you need to do so you can put it into action. I’ve heard it’s almost impossible in Tampa Bay area to get a generator today! Yet, will it hit Tampa Bay? Will it come in further North near the Big Bend but push a dome of water into every bay, inlet and river along the way? Will tornadoes be a problem as hurricanes in late September that are catching a cold front often product tornadoes far from the center track of the eye.
Will the cold front be strong enough to grab Ian?
A stronger Ian will want to go North more as major hurricanes seek out the North route, unless a high blocks that or something else catches it and drags it off to the NE suddenly.
Weather is difficult to predict, tropical weather even more so as you need to know the weather up streange where the hurricane is moving and the dynamics inside the particular hurricane seeking out it’s particular harbor.
I will update later but I am busy today so I’ll be online less and wrote long this morning. I’ll be on Twitter all day. I’ll update the blog after 5 PM advisory.
@hurricanetrack Mark Sudduth is good, follow him.
https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh is good and entertaining.
Find your favorite local people and follow them.
Stay safe… Err on the side of caution and if things change and you’re out of the cone or Ian doens’t live up to it’s great expectations say “thank you” and take down the shutters, give thanks, party.
But until then……….pay attention to it as if your life depends on it.
And, hopefully you will be safe and it would be nice to believe Ian will be a bust but the models did well with Fiona despite a lackluster appearance and we know how she turned out.
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whenever I get around to it.
I’ll be offline from tonight at sundown until Tuesday evening sundown in Raleigh NC.
Kind of like Sandy Koufax who didn’t pitch in the World Series on Yom Kippur.
World Series and Hurricane Season always hit at the same time as the High Holidays.
But I’ll be on Tuesday Night and this is far from over as it could impact a large part of the Eastern Seaboard and they too should be wondering what happens after landfall the way Ida rampaged her way through NY and NY. IF it’s South of you… monitor it.
Once Ian wakes up we will be sorry it did I think…
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