September 23, 2023

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TD 14 Joins Hurricane Lee in ATL..Lee Forecast to be 160 MPH as per NHC … Next Name Up Margot! How Close Does Lee Come to US Coast & PR? Models, Thoughts, Discussion.

4 min read


Lee is rapidly intensifying” from NHC

Discussion from NHC explains that Hurricane Lee is going through Rapid Intensificaiton and will be a Major Hurricane soon actually saying “models are calling for remarkable intensification.” 

Note they have it at 16O MPH!!

In the forecast.

NHC usually conservative…

…totally wild really.

Will update blog later today w next model runs.

Recon goes in Today.

Recon data into models….

….will make them better.

We need that data from Recon.

Blog today is on what is…

..what people are asking.

Next we have TD 14!

Not a surprise but here’s the info.

Info on Lee at bottom of the Cone.

This is how Lee looks today on Earthnull.

Putting this to remind you how far away it is.

2,000 miles away from Miami approximately.

Lee is out there, biding it’s time.


Watch for Rapid Intensification….

…when that form is perfect.

That’ll be Margot behind Lee.

Yes, new wave coming off 

Using my words here this morning. It’s important to understand for Lee to get from where it is now, to the intense Major Hurricane all the models are forecasting…. it needs to consolidate, build a well aligned perfect core. It’s a vertical thing with Major Hurricanes, they don’t happen when a hurricane looks good on satellite imagery, but it’s core is tilted as it can’t build high up and evacuate energy properly. It’s very simple, slow to watch in real time and then when it’s ready to go it’s BOOM BOOM BOOM and Rapid Intensity (RI) begins and where it ends, we are never really sure. Needs the right environmental elements, a perfect set up and models have been calling for a perfect set up to allow Lee to become a Perfect Storm (visually anyway) while out in the Atlantic East of Florida and near the Bahamas where Hurricanes over history love to explode, stall and spin. 

So going back up to that loop up above… 

The front you see is not THE FRONT but a weak front cooling off North Carolina from 102 degrees yesterday to a chill 83 degrees once it passes then snapping back into the high 80s flirting with the 90s but hopefully it won’t get there. Weather is all relative. After 102 degrees yesterday 83 sounds beautiful, almost chilly….. teasing but true in ways.

You look down at Lee and your mind begins to race in Miami and you ask questions online like this:

“How do we know it won’t turn fast and a high sets in and it moves to South Florida??”

In North Carolina, people are asking the same question as models are closer to NC now than they were back when this began and it was EAST of Bermuda in long range models.

EURO Friday, September 15th.

Does it inch loser?

High surf for sure.

Long range model.

8 days away.

Using OBX as a bechnmark..

…for NE which I’ll show below.

While I can say it most likely isn’t a storm Miami needs to worry on, but there is no guarantee with that statement and this Miami girl watching it from North Carolina talking to my son in Miami is really watching it trust me. IF anything changes, you’ll read it here FAST so check back often! And, as for NC how close it comes to our beautiful beaches will probably show us how realistic it might be that New England might have to deal with this one.

So why is this much benchmark?

Check back in 3 days… and contrast Lee’s position.

Closest to OBX

(is that huge or what?)

Saturday, EURO   NE

Cape Cod

Note Long Island would get wild surf.

It sticks out there… 

Kind of New England’s barrier Island..

…more than a part of NYC

Once past the 5 Towns and Valley Stream

(for LI readers)


People ask “Why aren’t they warning New England??” or say “People in Maine need to know!!” and again there’s someone in Miami asking “how do we know it won’t turn” but the real answer is this:

When people see this image above, as a satellite image and watch loops of it spinning, looking like the biggest hurricane they remember… everyone on the East Coast will be aware it’s there, and will be paying attention. I mean unless some crazy news event comes along…..steals the show, but trust me everyone will be aware it’s there. And, everyone should be prepared, especially Up North where they will use leftover Hurricane Supplies for Winter Storms. 

Phil is the best.

You can’t scream SHARK into a crowd in South Dakota and have anyone take you seriously. Lee is approximately 2,000 miles away from Miami. It’s a whole lot further away from NC and NE. And, models are really only reliable for the first 5 days or so… close to 7 but so much changes. Again the Cone shown here from 5 AM is WIDE at the end because models are less reliable that far out.

Leaving you with a song.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,


@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram (BobbiStorm)

2023-09-07 14:45:00

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