November 30, 2022

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SUB-TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 07, 2022…9:15 P.M. EST

9 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:       7
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

I had a forecast ready to go yesterday evening, however for some reason it wouldn’t publish.  Upon refreshing the page, the system deleted everything I had typed up.

Enter Sub-Tropical storm NICOLE.
As of the 7:00 p.m. EST intermediate advisory, the following was available on NICOLE:
7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 7
Location:26.7°N 70.8°W
Moving: NW at 8 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb / 29.47 in
Max sustained:45 mph
NHC TRACK AND WATCH/WARNING MAP (LINKED TO NHC)
cone graphic
Satellite imagery indicates a notable center of circulation, however the storm remains disorganized at the moment, and the system even looks almost frontal.  However, there are no fronts present based on analysis of the TAFB surface analysis map.  I performed an analysis of AMSU data, as well as cyclone phase evolution data, and it does appear the storm has transitioned to warm core.  Being that the maximum surface winds are well away from the center, this would be the reason for a subtropical designation.
RECENT MTSCWA SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS
2022AL17_MPSATWD_2022110721_SWHR
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
38623181
38623181vis
Current data from the CIMSS website indicates NICOLE is under about 15 – 20 kts of shear near the center.  Based on analysis of SHIPS diagnostic data, shear is forecast to increase out to about the next 48 – 50 hours, then decrease.  The NHC indicates shear is supposed to remain low, which would tend to agree with the ECMWF and GFS global models developing an improving shear pattern with a radial pattern centered over NICOLE.  The models indicate this to take place by hour 36 in the forecast period from 12Z.  NICOLE is currently interacting with an upper level low which is producing limited outflow north and east of the center (i.e. semi radial clockwise pattern).  This low is allowing for dry air intrusion, which is evident in water vapor loop imagery.  This low is forecast to decay, which should allow for convection to begin slowly building near or over the center, and the forecast is for improving mid level relative humidity values.  This should allow NICOLE to slowly transition to tropical, and strengthening should occur thereafter.  Forecast 200 mb streamlines show a somewhat improving pattern, and albeit not optimal, an outflow channel north of the center is forecast to exist.  NICOLE will be traversing SST’s of 27 – 28C and OHC values of 75 kj / cm2.  Based on this, IF the forecast information is correct, I do expect NICOLE to strengthen gradually, and she could attain top end tropical storm status prior to landfall.  Albeit I agree with the NHC intensity forecast, I am a little hesitant at this time of forecasting a minimal CAT 1 hurricane at landfall, although it cannot 100% be ruled out.  This is going to depend on how quickly she can transition to tropical, and whether or not the forecast conditions become more favorable as the time frames indicate.  As of 18Z, intensity guidance has backed off slightly on hurricane intensity.  I will be monitoring this very closely.  Regardless, hurricane watches have been issued for the Florida east coast.  Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Bahamas.  Hurricane watches are not only issued if actual hurricane conditions will occur, but are also issued if hurricane like conditions will be experienced.  Given this is forecast to be a rather large system, along with the tight pressure gradient that should occur, it is possible to experience hurricane like conditions.
ECMWF SHEAR AND 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-shear_850v200-7952000
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-shear_850v200-8038400
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-z200_speed-7952000
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-z200_speed-8038400
ECMWF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-rh_fourpanel-1667822400-1667822400-1668081600-40
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

INIT 07/2100Z 26.6N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0600Z 27.3N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1800Z 27.6N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH…SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH…TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.0N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 28.0N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 31.2N 82.6W 40 KT 45 MPH…INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 37.5N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NICOLE was moving to the NW, and I expect this motion to continue through tonight.  By sometime late tomorrow morning, I expect a westerly turn to begin as ridging builds north of NICOLE.  As the ridge shifts east, the orientation will be such as to impart a slight WSW motion briefly, allowing for the storm to enter the northern Bahamas.  From  there, based on the analysis of forecast steering layers, NICOLE should continue into the Florida east coast, making landfall near the vicinity of West Palm Beach.  Residents within the HURRICANE WATCH AREA should be making preparations at this time.  I urge residents along the Florida east coast to remain away from beaches, and for small craft to remain inport as this system approaches, given that the forecast calls for significant wave heights of around 20 – 25 ft.
18Z ATCF TRACK GUIDANCE
aal17_2022110718_track_early
AL17_current
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST
ecmwf-wave-eastgulf-sig_height_wave_dir-1667822400-1667822400-1668081600-40
ww3-eastgulf-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1667844000-1667844000-1668081600-20
The following are the experimental storm surge values from the NHC.  This graphic is linked to the NHC graphics page.  PLEASE click on it to view all NHC graphics regarding NICOLE:
STORM SURGE GRAPHIC
[Image of cumulative wind history]
The following is from the NHC public advisory and contains watch and warning information, and expected hazards:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwest Bahamas, including the Abacos, Berry Islands,
Bimini, and Grand Bahama Island.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Andros Island, New Providence, and Eleuthera.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East Coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Hallandale Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound to Hallandale Beach
* Mouth of the St. Johns River to East Palatka
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Altamaha Sound southward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Hallandale Beach to north of Ocean Reef
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests in the central Bahamas, the remainder of Florida, and
along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor
the progress of Nicole.  Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight or early Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.  For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the northwest Bahamas
within the hurricane warning area by early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected elsewhere in the northwest Bahamas by
Tuesday night.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area in Florida by Wednesday night with tropical storm conditions
possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

*North Palm Beach to Altamaha Sound including the St. Johns
River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft
* St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to East
Palatka...2 to 4 ft
*Hallandale Beach to North Palm Beach...2 to 4 ft
*North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach including Biscayne Bay...1
to 2 ft

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of the
northwestern Bahamas in areas of onshore winds.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Surge-related
flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal
cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
RAINFALL:  Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday:
Across the northwest Bahamas, and the central and northern portions
of the Florida Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima of 6
inches.

Across coastal areas of southeast Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with local
maxima of 5 inches.
Heavy rainfall from this system will spread north across the
Southeastern United States late this week.
SURF:  Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwest
Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern 
United States coast during the next several days.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.

The following link is for NWS local hurricane products.  Once you click the link, you want to click on the bold blue lettering under each heading:
NWS LOCAL PRODUCTS LINK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls2+shtml/072137.shtml

The following is my hurricane preparedness post from JAN. 27, 2022…PLEASE REVIEW:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2022/01/27/%ef%bf%bchurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-jan-27-2022-1215-p-m-est/

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)

I will continue to monitor NICOLE for any significant changes.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening, and my prayers go out to those in the path of IAN!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-11-08 02:05:59

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