Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
I will be out of the office next week on vacation to visit my son in PA. I will be back on the 26th, and will try to update then.
This update will be based on a short range forecast, out to the morning of 21 JAN., updating forecast temperatures and snowfall amounts from the previous update.
A stratospheric warming event is currently underway. You can notice this in the animated GIF graphics by the 10 mb and 30 mb temperature anomalies (over the Arctic), which are very warm, and the 10 mb and 30 mb pressure anomalies, which are strong (over the Arctic) The higher pressure anomalies, although not always, allow for the jetstream to buckle (animation), allowing the Polar Vortex to usher in colder, Arctic air over the U. S. This is usually associated with a moderate to strong, negative Arctic Oscillation. To save time, I am only using the GFS model for graphics tonight.
GFS 10 MB AND 30 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
GFS 10 MB AND 30 MB PRESSURE ANOMALIES
LINK FOR EXPLANATION ON SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING
ARCTIC OSCILLATION (CLICK GRAPHIC)
POLAR VORTEX EXPLAINED (CLICK GRAPHIC)
During the forecast period, colder temperatures will once again affect the U. S. You will notice much colder temperatures do extend far south in the beginning of the period, however, you’ll note the Arctic air pretty much affects only the extreme northern portion of the U. S., to about the North Central U. S., with milder temperatures over the south during the later portion of the period.
GFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
The following are updated forecast snowfall totals up to the morning of the 21st.
GFS KUCHERA TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST