Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good day everyone!
A little bit of a different forecast today, mostly regarding the copious amounts of rain forecast for portions of Texas and Louisiana during the upcoming week Mon. 22 JAN. – SAT. 27 JAN.
First up though we have been going through another Sudden Stratospheric Warming event which is still ongoing. It appears this may disrupt the Polar Vortex briefly, with minimum temperatures dipping into the 30’s over west central Florida, with the remainder of the east being left in single digits, teens, and 20’s.
ECMWF 10 MB TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE ANOMALY FORECAST
NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST JAN. 21
Analysis of the global models during the past couple of days have been consistent in forecasting moderate to heavy accumulations of rainfall during the week next week, with the probability of rain continuing over the area through Friday. Upon analyzing the model solutions, I did not really notice any significant surface low that may be responsible for inducing this weather, but rather an elongated surface trough of lower pressure. Based on analysis of the upcoming 500 mb and 200 mb pattern, a sharp and negatively tilted mid level trof, and support from strong 200 mb jetstreak will allow for development of frontal waves with the accompanying frontal boundary, along with shortwaves progressing along the 500 mb trough. The combination of these 2 features will allow for enough moisture to flow north from the GOMEX, along with warm air advection and enough lift to provide the ingredients for the heavy rainfall. This trough is going to be slow moving in nature, which will allow for these “frontal waves” and shortwave troughs to be numerous, and passing over the forecast area through at least mid week. Some rainfall totals could exceed “4 – 5” inches total by the end of the period in isolated locations. I will try to keep updates on this situation during next week, however will have to work around my medical appointments.
ECMWF FORECAST MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION
WPC 5 DAY SURFACE MAP VALID JAN. 24
ECMWF 500 MB HEIGHTS FORECAST ANIMATION
ECMWF AND GFS TOTAL PRECIPITATION 12Z 22 JAN – 12Z 27 JAN
WPC 5 AND 7 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
5 DAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALERT ISSUED 2:30 A.M. EST Valid 12Z Tue Jan 23 2024 Through 12Z Wed Jan 24 2024
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
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Have a blessed day.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS
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