RADAR CHECK: We note a few scattered showers over Southwest Alabama early this morning, otherwise it is a dry start to the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s over North Alabama, to the mid 70s over the western counties where clouds are in place. We expect a mix of sun and clouds today with just a few isolated showers around along with a high in the 80s.
REST OF THE WEEK: Scattered showers will remain possible statewide tomorrow and Wednesday. We can’t promise rain for everyone; odds of any one spot seeing rain both days are 30/40 percent. Highest coverage of rain will likely come on Wednesday across the southern counties. Then, we trend drier Thursday with only a small risk of a shower. Friday looks rain-free with a good supply of sunshine. Highs will hold in the 80s through the week, with lows mostly in the 60s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: For now the weather looks dry over the weekend, and through much of next week with mostly sunny warm days and fair pleasant nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: Tropical Storm Philippe is in the Atlantic far from land with winds of 50 mph. It is about 1260 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The official forecast from NHC keeps the system under hurricane strength through the week, and shows a gradual gain in latitude.
There is actually a good bit of uncertainty in the forecast track; the American GFS model shows a stronger system that turns north, then heading out to sea far from any land area. But, the European global model shows a weaker system that keeps moving toward the west/northwest. We will keep an eye on it.
Closer to home, disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough of low pressure and an upper-level trough. Further development, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next few days while the system moves slowly westward. By the middle of the week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for additional development. NHC gives it only a 10 percent chance of development.
And, in the eastern Atlantic, an area of low pressure (Invest 91L) located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week as the system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This one will likely turn north and won’t be a threat to land.
We expect no tropical storms or hurricanes near the Gulf of Mexico for at least the next seven days.
ON THIS DATE IN 1848: The Great Gale of 1848 was the most severe hurricane to affect Tampa Bay, Florida and is one of two major hurricanes to make landfall in the area. This storm produced the highest storm tide ever experienced in Tampa Bay when the water rose 15 feet in six to eight hours.
ON THIS DATE IN 1998: Four hurricanes were spinning simultaneously in the Atlantic basin: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne, and Karl. That was the first time this had happened since 1893.
Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
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