April 14, 2021

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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE…POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL ENTITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAR. 20, 2021…4:45 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following forecast is LOW CONFIDENCE at this time.

There are quite a few graphics associated with this synopsis, as I am posting ALL of the models analyzed this afternoon.  Analysis of the global models and NAM – WRF mesoscale model currently indicate lowering surface pressures IVO Florida and the SEUS coast.  The majority of the models indicate surface pressures to begin lowering over the Bahamas area, with a weak, close low developing off the SEUS coast by late Monday evening.  Every model at the moment is varying on intensity.  Current forecast MSLP is between 1016 – 1012 mb (30.00in – 29.88in) associated with the closed low.
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MSLP ANOMALIES (MODEL DESIGNATION SHOULD BE AT THE TOP OF THE MODEL MAP)








At this time, I am going to consider this forecast low confidence, until I can see further model runs tomorrow, regarding a little more consistency on forecast strength and if models come into better agreement on whether or not they close off the low.  Based on analysis of the current wind shear forecast, and 200 mb winds (streamlines), I do not see anything that indicates tropical support.  Based on the shear pattern, the supposed low would develop mainly due to baroclinic forcing.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST ANIMATED GIF
However, given analysis of the forecast wind field and velocities, this area of lowering pressures could have the low probability of becoming a sub-tropical entity.  I say low confidence, as analysis of maps from the Cyclone Phase evolution page, indicates the forecast low to remain cold core.  In a sub-tropical system, maximum surface winds are located away from the center of circulation, which is noted in the ECMWF animated surface wind map.
ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST ANIMATED GIF

IF this low develops and moves slow enough, the warm waters of the Gulfstream could begin to warm the core at the surface, and the low COULD begin to take on some subtropical characteristics.  Water temperatures of  21C are sufficient enough for sub-tropical development.  The models as of current, take whatever may form, off to the NE.
CURRENT SST ANOMALIES (GULF STREAM)


I am going to continue to monitor this, and intend to perform a second analysis sometime late tomorrow afternoon / early evening, and issue an update if needed.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2021-03-20 20:49:03

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